In what marks another potential turning point for World Extreme Cagefighting, incumbent featherweight champion Mike Thomas Brown looks to cement his divisional dominance by ending the brilliant run of Jose Aldo, Brazil’s answer to Alexis Arguello. Make no mistake, WEC 44 “Brown vs. Aldo” this Wednesday at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas will decide the division’s future. Plus, that five-round bout will not be the only bit of quality violence the mixed martial arts world can expect.

A trio of fights with title implications will fill out the main card, featuring UFC refugees, top-tier prospects and a former champion starting another ascent up the ladder.

WEC Featherweight Championship
Mike Thomas Brown vs. Jose Aldo

The Breakdown: In this clash of diminutive featherweight titans, Brown, the incumbent champion and brawling lumberjack, puts his gold on the line against a Brazilian brain-bomber in a fight that may well decide the future of the division. How this fight shakes out depends largely on Brown’s strategy and Aldo’s ability to show something more than his all-universe striking.

Thus far, Brown has relied on his tremendous punching power to overwhelm opponents before finishing them off on the mat. Not a bad approach against most, but if he tries it against Aldo, he will end up looking like that chimpanzee victim on Oprah. Brown has to make peace with that truth since Aldo’s reach, timing and power make him uniquely suited to the sport.

There are dangers associated with grounding Aldo, who comes from the vaunted Nova Uniao team, which has produced elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu technicians since the beginning. Still, it seems smarter to eliminate the devil one knows, and Brown will be much better off abandoning his striking in favor of his nasty top game.

Aldo’s grappling may be legit, but one has to wonder how he will respond to proving it against someone with Brown’s unique combination of submission savvy and rugged ground striking. Unless Brown has a Darwinian moment, he will force Aldo out of his comfort zone; that crucible awaits his would-be usurper.

The X-Factor: Sticking to a game-plan while an incredibly dangerous human being tries to remove one from consciousness seems a lot like trying to solve a Rubik’s cube in a shark tank. In other words, the idea of Brown taking down Aldo sounds good on paper, but it comes with the assumption that he can actually out-wrestle the challenger. Most of Brown’s success as a wrestler comes from his ability to physically overwhelm opponents, but he struggled to control solid grapplers like Urijah Faber and Jeff Curran. Even more unsettling, both were able to escape from underneath Brown. While losing top control may have been little more than a mere annoyance in those fights, the sight of Aldo escaping back to his feet is akin to a running back locking eyes in the hole with San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis.

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The Bottom Line: MMA fans can be reasonably certain of only one thing about this fight; it will be more fun than a “Rocky” training montage. The early going will likely be surprisingly tactical, as both men respect the high stakes at hand, but that will serve as an appetizer to the unbridled chaos that awaits once the violence starts flowing. Sooner or later, Brown will stretch his luck on the feet a bit too far, and Aldo will be ready to leave him short a few brain cells.