Analyzing Silva-Jackson III

Move forward when the time is right

When Jackson found himself moving side-to-side and backward against Griffin, his lack of kicks and inability to check them backfired big time. Injured by a Griffin kick in the second round, Jackson had to gut out the five-round bout. And in the first fight with Silva, low kicks troubled him while also acting as a counterweight to his aggression.

Liddell was able to counter Silva effectively in retreat and push him back on his heels when making him move back. Time and again, “The Iceman” seemed able to use his edge in reach and range to land while Silva would flurry in spots, usually landing hard but not nearly enough to build up points on the judges’ scorecards.

Jackson and Silva are not at their best playing the counter game. Yet in both previous fights, each guy showed respect instead of the usual charge-in-and-bomb style. That’s because both know how dangerous it is facing each other.

Given Jackson’s edge in wrestling, takedowns and physical strength, he has to effectively move forward to win this fight, barring a single-shot, fight-changing bomb as Silva comes in. “Rampage” must press intelligently and get past the dangerous range where Silva can apply the muay Thai clinch and unleash those deadly knees that ended their first two fights.

On both sides, it’s like telling a man with a .45 to go into the bear’s lair and finish the beast, when the bear knows darn well you’re lingering outside the entrance. But playing the points game for both guys is not conducive to their style and will probably result in defeat. Someone is going to have to dare to be bold, and go for it -- and that’s never been a problem for either man.

Utilizing UFC rules: cage vs. ring

In both fights, Silva was able to smartly use the ropes to bounce off them as Jackson closed for a takedown. In the Octagon, the difference can be stark compared to bouncing off ring ropes, as the guy with his back to them tends to get stuck there, where often he can be pinned, grinded and punished, whether standing or on the ground. The cage is probably a considerable advantage for Jackson, who has better grappling and takedowns.

And throw in the fact that you can’t kick to the head on the ground in the UFC and elbows are allowed on the ground, and the difference between UFC and Pride definitely tilts in Rampage’s favor given the likely flow of the fight and their relative skill sets.

In reviewing Pride matches and comparing them to UFC fights, there’s a key difference to how the clinch unfolds on the ropes versus the cage. You can slide on ropes, bounce off them, lean in to get critical leverage for a positional reversal, etc. Options are far reduced when you’re jammed against a cage, whether standing or on your back. This factor should favor Jackson.

Movement

While Silva figures to have much more trouble being pinned against a cage as opposed to the ropes, he also benefits from the shape of the Octagon compared to a ring. It’s simply much easier to move given the soft angles of the cage, where a guy can keep circling without getting caught in a 90-degree corner with nowhere to go but against the turnbuckle. And while it’s key that both men play aggressor, Silva does have a better kickboxing skill set and this kind of spacious real estate could help him pick spots more effectively while playing off Quinton’s aggression.