Doggy Bag: A Foil for the Prodigy

It seems like every other day Bellator is announcing another fighter for one of their tournaments. April is going to be absolutely sick. I was just wondering who you thought were the favorites heading into the tournaments based on the fights who have already been announced, and if you thought any of the eventual winners would have serious chances to dethrone any of the current champs.
-- Clay Wright

Jordan Breen, radio host and Fight Finder Czar: First, I think it needs to be said that the fine people at Bellator are clever, clever chaps. The strategy of slowly piecing together their tournaments, and then methodically leaking the signings out is brilliant. The MMA news cycle has constant, dizzying turnover, and with the debut of their second cycle in April, it would be ridiculous to expect anyone to care about their product in the interim without proper impetus. By having a new fighter announced every couple of days, Bellator keeps the online community running to YouTube regularly to do some leisurely research, and getting even more excited for their forthcoming tournaments.

As for the tournaments themselves, it's hard to say because of actually how few participants have been announced. Some are clearer than others. And of course, there is no point in discussing the 185-pound tourney at this point yet, with almost no one confirmed for it.

The 145-pound tournament is shaping up to be brilliant with lots of great talent, including one of Canada's best prospects Will Romero as well as Brazil's best prospect in Patricio "Pitbull" Freire. Wilson Reis, Roberto Vargas and other prior Bellator talent may be used the tourney. Also, several Sengoku and Dream veterans (sorry, no names -- yet) are trying to get their foot in the door as well due to the television exposure and potential purse implications Bellator offers. The last three or four spots in the tournament could still drastically shape the favorites. At this point, I think Freire is the best fighter official at yet. He's a little undersized despite the fact he's fought most of his career at 155 pounds in Brazil, and his defensive wrestling could use work, but he's got dynamic skills and is a highlight reel machine.

At 155, we know just a small sliver of the talent. However, with the Masvidal-Imada rematch in April, “Gamebred” figures to be the tournament favorite. He was expected to meet Alvarez in the final last year, and the Imada loss was his first true loss (ignoring the horrifically inept stoppage in the Rodrigo Damm fight) in four years. He's becoming more and more versed on the ground, and he shows marked improvement between fights. I expect him to punch his way to the title and finally meet up with Alvarez.

Welterweight is the most fleshed out tournament so far and I favor Dan Hornbuckle above the rest of the bracket. Hornbuckle, like Masvidal, is showing big skill gains between fights. He's got the most quality experience and is probably the most versatile guy in the bracket. Many have hopes for Ben Askren because of his Olympic wrestling pedigree, but his MMA skills aren't at that level yet. Arizona prospect Jacob McClintock may be a future top-10 fighter, but is still probably too green to take the tournament. UK rep Jim Wallhead is absolutely deserving of a spot, but wouldn't have much to offer Hornbuckle at this point.

As for any of them beating champions, it's certainly possible. At 185, I find it hard to imagine them unearthing a free agent who is good enough to beat Lombard, but the other weight classes are intriguing. Joe Soto is a great fighter, but is still very much a prospect himself, and it's feasible that the winner of the second featherweight cycle may be an equally dynamic, but more experienced foe. Eddie Alvarez is a top three lightweight, and is going to be a favorite against whoever comes out of the tournament, but if it is Masvidal, as I'm predicting at this early juncture, Alvarez could be in tough because of his defensive liabilities. Masvidal definitely has the hand techniques to make him pay if he isn't crisp on the feet.

A forecasted Lyman Good-Dan Hornbuckle fight might be the most compelling. Though I'd favor Hornbuckle if he fought the Lyman Good of last year, Good showed massive improvements in all facets of his game in 2009, growing from fight-to-fight. If he's still making big gains in the gym over the last seven months -- and we should see whenever he gets a pre-Bellator tune-up scheduled -- he may emerge as a truly elite welterweight in 2010.