Preview: UFC Fight Night 125 ‘Machida vs. Anders’

Bantamweight

John Dodson (19-9) vs. Pedro Munhoz (15-2)

ODDS: Dodson (-150), Munhoz (+130).

ANALYSIS: It may not be entertaining to watch, but this is a highly intriguing style pairing. While Dodson and Munhoz operate quite differently, they both often run hot and cold, make poor stylistic choices and allow their opponents to dictate the fight. Who is going to impress upon the other man here?

Dodson remains one of the most freakish athletes I have ever seen in the sport, blessed with shocking athleticism, balance, speed, quickness and natural hitting power. His left hook is one of the best punches in MMA, and he can throw flying Liu Kang kicks on much taller opponents. However, “The Magician” often has hot starts and retreats into passivity, like when he knocked flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson all over the cage for 10 minutes in their first bout and then lost the last three rounds; or when he did the same against Pat Runez in 2009. Dodson arguably lost the split decision in his last bout to Marlon Moraes in November because he went for an inexplicable takedown late, leading to a guillotine from the former World Series of Fighting champion that actually looked like it ended the fight for a moment. The 33-year-old Jackson-Wink MMA product remains his own worst enemy.

Munhoz is the same story. While he has only lost to elite bantamweights like Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera, he absorbs 5.53 significant strikes per minute, which is simply not an acceptable rate for such a skilled fighter. However, it is part and parcel of his strange preference for medium-range striking, where he walks into the pocket and just starts kicking at his opponents, hoping to get a beat on them. His move to American Top Team lately appears to have helped his focus and execution in the cage; he has won four in a row since the Rivera loss and enters his match with Dodson off of a beautiful performance against Rob Font in October. Munhoz’s past against left-handed punching is centrally troubling here, whether it means a jab from a righty or power shots from a lefty. Dodson’s left power strikes are not going to be friendly if the American applies any real heat to a charging “Young Punisher.”

This is about whether or not Dodson can kill a bird and how many stones he wants to throw. Dodson has never been finished in his career and does so much defensive circling and resetting that Munhoz is not going to have the wild up-and-down brawl he had with Font. That dynamic may slow Munhoz’s usual forward pressure just enough to make him chase the elusive Dodson, who can land the more damaging shots to the defensively shoddy Brazilian and overcome his own strategic woes to win a back-and-forth decision.

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