Main Event
Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields

The Breakdown: In a style clash so extreme it almost seems out of place in modern MMA, Lawler’s bloodlust on the feet stands at odds with Shields’ clinical precision on the mat. What this fight really hinges on, though, is how Shields (22-4-1) deals with Lawler’s brutish physicality in the cage. Lawler (16-4, 1 NC) has always been an easy mark on the ground. Getting him there is the problem, and Shields’ substandard striking will not buy him any time standing if his usual game plan goes awry.

Keep an eye out early. If Lawler starts bullying around Shields and teeing off, the former EliteXC welterweight champion might as well bust out the Ric Flair flop and call it a day. However, the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Shields, who needs only a takedown and a minute or two on the clock to teach Lawler that screaming and flexing only looks cool when upright.

The X Factor: Both men are former welterweights, but Lawler has been competing as a middleweight for years; this bout represents Shields’ first run at 185 pounds. Picking arguably the best middleweight outside the UFC as one’s first mark seems bold at best, masochistic at worst. If Shields does not carry the extra weight well, he’ll be stuck trying to drag down one of the division’s most gifted athletes. By the same token, if Shields handles the jump in weight as well as Lawler has, he’ll force one of MMA’s premier power punchers to prove his worth on the mat.

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The Bottom Line: Once upon a time, Lawler was just another brawler. Thankfully, those days are long gone and we now have a more refined version of the wild-eyed brute of old. Striking the balance between composure and aggression will be pivotal for Lawler, who must prevent Shields from getting him down. However, the mere threat of his loaded limbs should be enough to keep Shields from getting too bold with his takedowns. Either way, Lawler will keep this bout in his domain long enough to add Shields’ scalp to his growing list of knockout victims.