Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida

The Breakdown: The climb up the lightweight ladder gets only harder for Sanchez, as he puts his title hopes up for grabs against everyone’s favorite anthropomorphized version of Animal the moppet, Clay Guida. This fight hinges on what has been Sanchez’s Achilles heel throughout his career: His brilliant offense seems to shrivel up and die whenever he runs into a dominant wrestler who can smother his submissions. Guida may be a dominant wrestler, but he is far from bulletproof on the mat. He is prone to getting into scrambles, which is a dream scenario for Sanchez. While Guida has shown the fight IQ to use his wrestling in reverse before, that won’t work against Sanchez, who has more powerful strikes and has shown constant overall improvement in that area of his game.

Guida needs to think of himself as the Wile E. Coyote to Sanchez’s Roadrunner, but instead of loading up the Octagon with enough dynamite to level Luxembourg, he just needs to contain his quarry. Rough him up in the clinch, throttle him on the mat or just build an elaborate spring-loaded cage that will trap him when he goes for that pile of birdseed. I’m not sure how the commission would feel about that third suggestion. Guida should just focus on keeping Sanchez under control at all times. The problem with that is it means keeping Sanchez close enough to make the strategy seem like Wile E. Coyote came up with it.

The X Factor: Both fighters are known for keeping a furious pace. This fight may well come down to who can hold up late in the game. While Guida certainly has the gas tank to go the full 15 minutes, he tends to lose discipline as the clock runs out and that is a luxury he can’t afford against Sanchez, who will be looking for the finish one way or another every second this fight lasts. Both of Sanchez’s defeats have come against opponents willing to play it safe and stick to a no-frills game plan. You have to wonder if a guy who rocks the Geico caveman cut and listens to Alkaline Trio knows how to be conservative.

The Bottom Line: As much as I’d like to see a guy who looks like a borderline vagrant challenge for the lightweight title someday, it won’t be Guida. He’ll make my dreams come true as a rollicking fight turns into a showcase for Sanchez, who seals the deal via submission in the third round. While challenging for that title seems out of reach for Guida, he can always take solace in the fact that Acme Co. has weathered the financial meltdown and will eventually build something capable of catching something, maybe.