Long-term title reign remains elusive link for UFC

Despite the emergence of the sport in the last three years, MMA’s lengthiest reign in the states, in a major organization, was Matt Hughes’ five-defense run during his first reign. That’s the one elusive element the organization hasn’t had (we’ll turn a blind eye to Wanderlei Silva’s string of brutal stoppages in Pride, as most of today’s fan base has probably never seen it live).

Building a champ and knocking off a string of contenders creates marketing inertia, a groundswell of coverage. The kind of media mojo that surprises the hardier cynics (guilty here) who have watched the mainstream media sit on its hands for years before, in a wonderful display of pack journalism, all getting into it within the same six-month period a couple of years ago.

Lesnar may be the devil’s bargain to get that kind of coverage, but if you checked the ESPN front page Friday (not the MMA page, surprisingly), Lesnar-Couture weigh-in results and coverage were running in the top spot. The Lesnar Effect strikes once again.

A long-running champion is the next thing the UFC needs. It is galling to see Anderson Silva suggest retirement next year after four defenses (not counting the Travis Lutter bout), citing he is bored, or whatever. Hey! Or a B.J. Penn, who upon finally establishing a long-delayed UFC lightweight titleholder, promptly split for 170 and Georges St. Pierre, despite the fact that 155 holds a half-dozen solid defenses for him, all of which would be locks to be exciting fights he would be readily favored in (a nice combination, if you can get it).

It’s going a little far to suggest Lesnar is this close to making 10 title defenses. He still has to deal with the Nogueira-Mir winner first. But imagine how much the sport would grow if this guy keeps improving and winning against the top names challenging him. Worst-case scenario is you have a rotating mix of champs, rematches, rivalries and turns of fate. That’s not bad either. But the biggest thing MMA has lacked has been a long-term champion that is a gravitating force to draw in new fans. The role would fit Lesnar perfectly -- the Goliath that everyone wants to see fight, some to see him destroy and others to see if he can be toppled.

Further tightening of the MMA market

With the recession underway, the guess here is that MMA pay-per-view cards will have to significantly increase in quality to get buys. Ironically, the downturn in disposable income gives the UFC a chance to squeeze out competitors such as Affliction (if you can call them that) by holding fast during the downturn and letting newb organizations burn through the serious cash required to establish themselves, all while having to throw bigger bucks out to lure away top talent required to get a foothold.

The Dec. 27 card seems to be a case of good timing in the recession (something few else have had). Looking to put on an end-of-year capper, the UFC’s bill includes Forrest Griffin-Rashad Evans, Nogueira-Mir and Wanderlei Silva-Rampage Jackson III. That’s a helluva card, and methinks that future pay-per-views will have to have at least two top-shelf matchups in the mix given the shrinking share of disposable dollars.

With the Lesnar Effect now locking in new fans, who's going to pay for other organizations? The allure of a Kimbo-type attraction has been tried, and failed readily. With shrinking dollars and an exploding UFC fan base, the "eyeball factor" new promotions have to tap into, and ultimately master to succeed, is more nebulous a puzzle than ever.

The UFC has never been slow to tweak its model. Just look at how the reality show was fine-tuned in the first few seasons to create equity of competition and slots in the semifinals (remember Forrest Griffin having to fight three times to get there? Unthinkable these days!). This translates into a steeper learning curve than most organizations (existing and future) will have the wits and resources to deal with. And don’t think that fighters aren’t feeling a lot less brave after the demise of EliteXC and other outlets, either. A year ago, with a bidding war underway that had fighters and managers loving a bull market for MMA talent, the pool has tightened considerably. This is a roundabout way of telling Vadim Finkelstein that things aren’t going to get any easier at the negotiating table should he find his client a free agent in the coming months.

Imitation of the “Lesnar Model”

While the economic slowdown is already putting the pinch on new promotions (not helped a whit by poor business decisions on part of these upstarts), don’t be surprised if some deep-pocketed entrepreneur tries to bring in his own Lesnar-style attraction and build a promotion around him. The order form will call for someone huge, marketable-looking and with some sort of athletic criterion.

Of course, Lesnar’s success in MMA has everything to do with his NCAA wrestling background and the mentality it took to succeed in that sport -- pro-wrestling fans, however, might be a tempting demographic to dangle another genetic freak show in front of as a sort of Lesnar redux.