UFC 107 Preview: The Main Card

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

The Breakdown: The early frontrunner for “Fight of the Night” features Florian matching wits and fists with Guida in a bout that neither man can afford to lose if he has any serious plans about staying in the title picture.

Guida’s failings in his memorable fight with Diego Sanchez at “The Ultimate Fighter 9” Finale were his willingness to brawl with a superior striker and his inability to move past the Sanchez guard or work ground-and-pound from inside it. Guida must avoid such strategic errors against Florian, who will be difficult to take down because of his excellent lateral movement and ability to control range with accurate strikes. Cutting off angles and quickly closing the pocket will be vital for Guida, as Florian has shown himself to be a cerebral fighter who thrives on exploiting his opponent’s weaknesses. That same level of strategic savvy has never been a part of Guida’s game, but he will need some of it to come away from this fight with something more than a bloody nose and frustration to spare.

The X-Factor: Guida can definitely out-wrestle Florian, but that fact will matter little if he cannot get past his guard. Florian will certainly look to emulate the machete elbows Sanchez used to stifle Guida from inside the guard. However, if Guida can focus on securing at least half-guard while executing his takedowns, he will put himself in a far better position to deliver his chain-gun ground-and-pound. Whether or not Guida shows the maturity to stick to whatever game plan he settles upon will go a long way towards deciding where he stands in the division.

* * *

The Bottom Line: A competitive fight just barely swings in Florian’s favor, as his slick striking and air-tight guard prove enough to sway the judges for a split decision win. Worry not about Guida, however. It seems only a matter of time before that luxurious head of hair lands him a contract with Pantene.