UFC 111 Preview: The Main Card

Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

The Breakdown: Thanks to Brock Lesnar’s swiss cheese intestinal tract, top heavyweight contenders Shane Carwin and Frank Mir will contest for the interim heavyweight title with the winner going on to challenge Lesnar for supremacy in the resurgent heavyweight division. For two fighters on the cusp of supremacy, the questions are overwhelming. Mir’s track record of injuries and inconsistency haunt him to this day while Carwin has never fought past the three-minute mark of a professional bout.

On paper it’s an impressive statistic, but it ignores the fact that Carwin has precious little live cage time and came awfully close to getting steamrolled by Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96. Green fighters heading into title bouts don’t have the greatest history. However, Carwin’s combination of bulldozing wrestling and awe-inspiring punching power both on the feet and mat make him a major style problem for Mir.

Throughout his career Mir has struggled against heavy hitters, particularly ones capable of smothering his submissions with skull-scrambling ground-and-pound. Carwin hits like an express train. If Mir gets spooked by his power, he’ll start making the same kinds of mistakes that tripped him up in all of his professional losses.

The trade-off here is that Carwin’s submission defense is completely unproven, and his boxing consists almost entirely of throwing really hard and hoping for the best. Mir has made significant strides in his striking over the years. While stout ground-and-pound remains his Achilles heel, he can still tap Carwin with the quickness if the ginormous Colorado native can’t handle a hyperactive guard.

The Bottom Line: This is one of the most evenly matched heavyweight bouts in some time on paper, but odds are it won’t last terribly long. Carwin’s unproven submission defense and Mir’s obvious distaste for punishment are combustible flaws that will cost one of them dearly come fight time. Bank on Mir’s superior technique on the feet to give Carwin fits before an ill-advised takedown lands Carwin in a fight-ending submission.