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UFC 94 Breakdown: The Main Card

St. Pierre vs. Penn

Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Georges St. Pierre is the favorite,
according to oddsmakers.
Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5-foot-10/170 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Saint-Isidore, Quebec, Canada
Fighting out of: Montreal
Record: 17-2

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The stakes: Motivation is overstocked for this title tilt, as St. Pierre looks to erase any doubts about his much-debated split decision win over Penn at UFC 58. Silencing his perpetually prolix Hawaiian rival would cement a spot alongside Fedor Emelianenko and Anderson Silva among the pound-for-pound elite.

St. Pierre has to realize this will be one of his career-defining fights. With moments of mental malfunction against Matt Serra and Matt Hughes still fresh in many minds, St. Pierre needs to view this match as his chance to carve out a spot on MMA’s Mount Rushmore.

The breakdown: While much is made of St. Pierre’s struggles with Penn in their first bout, he does enter this one with the tactical advantage of knowing he can control Penn on the ground. If that sounds unimportant, keep in mind that Sean Sherk -- a downright beastly wrestler in his own right -- was so intimidated by Penn’s grappling ability that he chose to absorb a beating on the feet rather than risk having his extremities extracted on the ground.

Where St. Pierre must prove himself is standing. Although Penn certainly gave St. Pierre some pause in the striking department in their first go around, most of his success came off a pair of glancing blows that exacted a surprising toll on St. Pierre’s fragile mug. St. Pierre needs to use his jab and kicks to keep Penn at bay long enough to wear him down.

B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5-foot-9/170 lbs.
Age: 30
Hometown: Kailua, Hawaii
Fighting out of: Hilo, Hawaii
Record: 13-4-1

The stakes: Known as much for the immaturity that has often constricted his success as he is for his once-in-a-generation talent, Penn will once again walk his own path by abandoning the comforts of the lightweight division in an attempt to hold two titles at once.

For all the debate over whether or not St. Pierre beat Penn three years ago, the fact is that the Hawaiian’s notoriously poor conditioning failed him in that fight and could remain a flaw that detracts from his otherwise sterling skill set. Jumping up in weight to the 170-pound limit will certainly put a strain on Penn’s gas tank but will also provide him with a chance to finally let his talent overshadow his tongue.

The breakdown: The most obvious part of Penn’s strategy should involve going after St. Pierre’s historically suspect chin by closing the gap early and keeping the pressure on the incumbent welterweight champion. What Penn must be wary of is getting into striking exchanges with St. Pierre, as it leaves him vulnerable should the French Canadian change levels and pursue the takedown.

Ideally, Penn would look to crack St. Pierre on the feet before quickly transitioning to the ground and taking advantage of an unsteady champion. More than likely, however, Penn will have to take his licks standing and deal with St. Pierre’s suffocating top control. As always, if Penn has the gas tank to hold up under St. Pierre’s pressure, his talent can take care of the rest.


* * *


The bottom line: If you’re a gambling man, then just assume Penn will have the stamina to last against a physically dominant opponent while ignoring the history that says otherwise. Those of us looking to remain financially solvent must remember that St. Pierre took the best Penn had to offer once before and managed to rally for a win in the space of 15 minutes.

With the five-round title fight format playing heavily in St. Pierre’s favor, he can afford to take Penn head on in the early going, even if it means dropping a round or two. As long as St. Pierre avoids Penn’s vaunted submission game and controls the tempo of the bout, he’ll head back to Canada having finally assured his place as one of the sport’s true greats.

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