Terry Etim vs. Justin Buchholz

The Breakdown: A battle of lightweight gatekeepers/human light poles headlines the evening’s undercard, as English favorite Terry Etim looks to escape his fringe contender status at the expense of Justin Buchholz. For someone with such a varied offensive arsenal, Etim has struggled in the UFC and he can thank his insufficient wrestling skills for that. Buchholz must capitalize on this weakness, as Etim’s slight frame makes him easily bullied on the mat. By the same token, Buchholz is meat on the feet while Etim’s long frame and clinch game is the recipe for a trip to the ER.

The X Factor: For a guy who has serviceable submissions and the wrestling to back it up, Buchholz has the unhealthy habit of getting into one exchange too many on the feet. Like cigarettes and White Castle, getting into fistfights with superior strikers will get you more pain than the temporary thrill it’s worth. If I’m in Buchholz’s corner, I’m giving him a Rorschach test before the fight to make sure his head is on straight enough to keep from jumping right into Etim’s wheelhouse.

The Bottom Line: Thus far, Etim’s undoing has come against superior wrestlers who can run the steamroller routine on him. Buchholz may be a better wrestler, but he relies on submissions far more than ground control and that means he’ll likely get into a mat battle with the surprisingly slick guard of Etim. Expect Buchholz to get behind on the cards trying to play “Street Fighter” with Etim and stay there by stalemating with him on the mat.