Manny Gamburyan vs. Leonard Garcia

The Breakdown: After a featherweight debut against John Franchi that could be charitably described as unwatchable, Gamburyan gets a chance to rediscover his testosterone against fellow UFC castaway Garcia. This fight could decide the next man to challenge for the featherweight crown. It remains hard to predict what Gamburyan will do once the cage door closes since he goes from anthropomorphized blanket to rabid submission ace with almost schizophrenic ease; Garcia has proven as predictable as an Iranian election.

All aggression all the time, Garcia will come right at Gamburyan on the feet, and with good reason, considering the unexpected knockout power that came with his cut down to featherweight. That strategy stands as a double-edged sword, however, as Gamburyan will shoot for Garcia’s legs the second he steps inside his range.

Unless Garcia can control range, a strategic nuance he routinely disregards, he will have to work from underneath Gamburyan’s paralyzing top control -- a task better suited to someone with gravity-altering superpowers. Always willing to take risks on the mat at the expense of positioning, Garcia will have to be awfully bold to draw Gamburyan out of his shell. Not a great plan considering no one wants to stave off a stocky Armenian with a leg-lock fetish.

The X-Factor: Moving down the weight ladder has not done anything for Garcia’s bargain-bin wrestling, but his aforementioned knockout power adds an unpredictable dimension to this fight. Gamburyan had his synapses scrambled by Robert Emerson at UFC 87, thanks to his mind-numbing habit of closing the gap with telegraphed punch flurries.

With his limited reach, striking will never be Gamburyan’s domain. Consider it a lesson he needs to keep in mind before he ends up drowning in the waters he tries to test.

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The Bottom Line: Even if Gamburyan comes out diving for leg locks, it seems hard to imagine Garcia getting the better of him on the mat. In other words, unless Gamburyan installs a neon “Hit Me” sign on his chin, he should grind out a unanimous decision.