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Dream Featherweight Grand Prix Semi-Final
Bibiano Fernandes vs. Joe Warren

The Breakdown: A super-prospect takes on one of the most underrated grapplers in the game, as Warren locks up with Fernandes in a match that pits Warren’s sterling wrestling game against Fernandes’ fearsome jiu-jitsu style. The real difference maker, however, may be Warren’s surprising boxing skills, which could give a mat-minded Fernandes fits. By the same token, Warren’s jiu-jitsu has never been tested, and Fernandes will have no qualms about pulling guard and trying to tie the American in knots. Can Warren defend that strategy? It makes for a fascinating question since he has already proven he knows so much more than any rookie should.

The X Factor: Natural talent can get you a long way in a developing sport, and Warren is testing the limits of that notion against some elite opposition. Taking a split decision over Norifumi Yamamoto in Japan was a testament to Warren’s moxie, but pure ability is mostly inapplicable when it comes to the technical intricacies of grappling. It will take some exceptionally disciplined strategy by Warren to keep his airway and arms out of harm’s way. Even then, one has to wonder if Warren grasps just how thin a line he will have to walk to keep his undefeated record intact.

* * * The Bottom Line: Striking will be what turns this fight on its head, as Warren sprawls and brawls his way to a textbook decision win. Time spent on the mat will consist of Warren playing it conservative and taking the nearest exit, as Fernandes struggles to find a groove in between getting his chin checked by Warren’s fists. The clock will prove Fernandes’ greatest enemy, as Warren plays it to his favor en route to stamping his ticket to the final.