Preview: UFC Fight Night 130 ‘Thompson vs. Till’

Featherweights
Arnold Allen (12-1) vs. Mads Burnell (9-2)
Odds: Allen (-265), Burnell (+225)

The 24 year-old Allen has been in the UFC three years and this will only be his fourth fight with the promotion. I kind of like this strategy on his part (or more likely, on the part of his head coach, Firas Zahabi). There’s no need to throw a 20- or 21-year-old out there three times in six months in one of the deepest divisions in MMA, a la Sage Northcutt. (Oh, he’s not getting better? Shocker!) Really young, athletic fighters need cage time, yes, but more than that they need their skills to catch up to their physicality. Hopefully his smarts catch up to his physicality, too. Allen was supposed to fight in January in Boston, but couldn’t get a visa because of his involvement in a drunken brawl the previous year.

In any case, Allen is a well-rounded MMA native with a high-level amateur boxing background and a BJJ purple belt. The Tristar Gym representative likes to pressure, but he lands a shockingly low two significant strikes per minute. That statistic highlights several issues with his game. First, though he is perpetually edging forward on the edge of boxing range, he doesn’t cut off the cage very well. Second, Allen backs off too easily. While he can counter a bit, he is as likely to hop back a step or two before resuming his march forward. So he isn’t forcing his opponent all the way to the fence, and they still have the space to move laterally when he lets his hands go. So while it looks like his kickboxing is fairly active, it is inaccurate because his opponents can slide away without too much trouble.

“Almighty” is probably his best on the mat. He is a solid wrestler, though Makwan Amirkhani grounded him several times. Allen ultimately won that fight by being fresher down the stretch. But he gave away the second round fighting hard for top position only to give it away recklessly hunting submissions. But Allen is a quality scrambler with damaging elbows from the top.

Burnell is a BJJ black belt with solid wrestling to back it up. He was physically outmatched in his debut by Michel Prazeres, who just fought at welterweight, but won a gritty battle with Mike Santiago in his sophomore appearance to even his record. The Dane has a nasty front headlock series - his last two pre-UFC wins came by Japanese necktie - but he also passed Santiago’s guard and took his back several times. The early portion of their scrap was fought tooth-and-nail for every position, and Burnell outlasted him. The Arte Suave Copenhagen stalwart has also shown off increasingly good hands. He decked Prazeres with a left hook early in their fight and has demonstrated more of an ability and willingness to throw in the pocket while keeping his eyes up. And by the way: Burnell is 24 as well.

Being consummately well-rounded used to be the goal for mixed martial artists, but the meta-game has shifted; having a dominant skill set is perhaps more important than ever. With all the time off spent training at an elite camp, we could see significant leaps for Allen. But his jack-of-all-trades game, like fellow MMA native Bojan Velickovic, will make him a tough out for everyone but dominant over few. Burnell has the hands to compete with the Englishman on the feet and the wrestling and grappling chops to control the action on the mat. Burnell outduels Allen by decision.

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