The Doggy Bag

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Call me crazy, but I think Carlos Condit is a more dangerous matchup for Georges St. Pierre than Nick Diaz.

Let me explain. Both guys are similar, with good striking and submissions but weak wrestling. Both fighters would be taken down by GSP. However, Condit is skilled at sweeps and escapes to get back up, where Diaz tries for submissions off the bottom. It’s unlikely he can submit GSP from there, so he’ll get beat up on the ground for most of the fight. Condit actually tries to get back up, and, in the Dong Hyun Kim fight at UFC 132, he showed us that he has more KO power than Diaz, who has to land 200 punches to stop his opponents.

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I love watching both guys fight, but I think with his power and his escapes, Condit has the better chance to do what Matt Serra did years ago. -- Brett from Seattle

Tristen Critchfield, contributing writer: Brett, you’re far from crazy. With a competitive five-round bantamweight title fight, Chris Leben’s surprisingly quick finish of Wanderlei Silva and Tito Ortiz’s upset of Ryan Bader, Condit’s performance got lost in the shuffle at UFC 132. It shouldn’t have, because Condit has more relevance within his division than Leben or Ortiz do in theirs.

The general pre-fight consensus regarding the New Mexican’s showdown with Kim was that Condit would be taken down at will and had to find a way to impress the judges while fighting off his back. Stylistically, it was a good litmus test to see if Condit was ready to be considered a worthy challenger for St. Pierre.

“The Natural Born Killer” was taken down early by Kim, but, as you pointed out, he was able to sweep into full mount, and the two combatants were back on their feet shortly thereafter. It was Kim’s only takedown of the contest, because the Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product finished the bout with a spectacular flying knee. Kim didn’t possess the name value of the some of the other fighters on the card, but what Condit was able to do to an unbeaten opponent whom most expected to maintain top position for three rounds is extremely significant.

Equally as important is his knockout of Dan Hardy. The British striker might get manhandled when faced with powerful wrestlers like St. Pierre or Anthony Johnson, but Condit is the only person to finish Hardy via strikes in 32 professional fights. Condit is a skilled finisher, period, as 26 of his 27 triumphs have come via knockout, technical knockout or submission. Diaz is no slouch in that department, but I agree that St. Pierre would rather test Diaz in a standup battle than Condit.

When Diaz gets taken down, he will no doubt be active from his back for submissions, but St. Pierre is deadly from top position, whether inside the guard or not. I’m not so certain that Condit would have an easy time getting up from a GSP takedown, but he would have the right idea by attempting to do so.

I expect the pre-fight buildup to Diaz-St. Pierre to be a lot of fun, but the fight itself will have a predictable result. In a past UFC life, Diaz struggled against the likes of Diego Sanchez and Sean Sherk. There is no doubt that he has improved since then, but Condit represents a more dangerous challenge as a hypothetical St. Pierre opponent because of a dynamic striking ability that doesn’t necessarily require landing a high volume to be successful.

For now, I would still favor St. Pierre in a matchup with Condit, but comparing him to Serra is doing Condit a disservice. No matter what the immediate future holds, the former WEC welterweight champion has shown the kind of growth in each of his UFC bouts that makes him more than the MMA equivalent of Buster Douglas.

A win over B.J. Penn in October would probably make the hypothetical a reality, assuming St. Pierre does his part. If that happens, we’ll have a whole new question to answer: who will Greg Jackson corner?

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I think that Melvin Guillard is the most dangerous lightweight in the UFC right now. Greg Jackson has showed him how to fight patient, and he has put his wrestling and striking together in a big-time way.

Obviously, it’s not a secret that lightweight is a great division and probably the best in the UFC, but I think that Guillard matches up really well with guys like Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Jim Miller and Clay Guida. Am I making too much of a guy knocking out solid lightweights, or is Guillard a future champion? -- Ben from Florida

Brian Knapp, features editor: There has never been any question regarding Guillard’s tangible tools. Considerable and God-given, they have been influenced and honed by years of experience in the cage and in the gym. Physically, there is no doubt that Guillard has what it takes to become a champion. It is on the other side of the equation -- the mental side -- where his future becomes far less certain, his current five-fight winning streak notwithstanding.

Yes, Jackson has made an enormous difference with Guillard since the two joined forces, creating a structured environment in which he could thrive and forcing him to up his game alongside some of the top fighters in the sport. Guillard executes game plans better, fights smarter and, perhaps most importantly, seems to be at peace with himself.

However, how will he react when confronted by one of the true elites in the 155-pound division? This is a guy who not long ago walked aimlessly into submissions against Joe Stevenson and Nate Diaz and allowed his emotions to get the best of him against Rich Clementi. It takes time to shake memories like those, and wins over Ronys Torres, Waylon Lowe, Jeremy Stephens, Evan Dunham and Shane Roller have not quite done it for me.

I think it would be to Guillard’s benefit to maintain his current pace up the ladder, remain as active as possible and let the division shake out a bit more. Remember, he is only 28. From a physical standpoint, there may not be a more gifted 155-pound fighter in the world, but he will need to incorporate the intangibles into his game to become a champion. With that said, I think to a man that all four of the lightweights you mentioned would view Guillard as a significant threat and a challenge not to be taken lightly. That says a lot about how far he has come.

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