Hiroshi Nakamura vs. Hayate Usui

For a 37-year-old publishing company employee who started his career 0-3, Usui has done pretty well for himself over the last three years, losing just once in nine bouts and carving out solid, entertaining wins over mid-level opposition in Japan. While he may be an exemplar of the MMA-as-a-hobby ideology that permeates much of regional Japanese MMA, Usui makes a great gatekeeper, both in his well-rounded, technical game and because he is not afraid to engender excitement when safety would suffice. It has made for some barnburners, like his rematch with current Shooto world champion “Lion Takeshi” Takeshi Inoue.

A fitting foil for Usui is Nakamura, a decade his junior, who has steadily climbed the 143-pound ranks in Shooto, upsetting former rookie champion Tenkei Fujimiya last March before shockingly battling to a draw in August with one of the world’s finest featherweights in Hatsu Hioki. The most regular training partner of UFC welterweight Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Nakamura was one of the most consistently thrilling Class B competitors in all of the Shooto system prior to his Class A promotion. His hyper-aggressive, cutthroat submission game seems equally influenced by his trainer and Shooto legend, Noboru Asahi, and Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach.

This should be an archetypal unfolding of a prospect-gateekeeper fight. Usui’s good enough to stay in the ring with Nakamura, but he will not be the one pulling the sled. Nakamura’s improved stand-up will allow him to close the distance on Usui, where he should be able to use either a double-leg or throws from the clinch to put Usui on his back. Usui’s a competent grappler, but Nakamura’s blend of old-school catch-style dynamism mixed with his smash game on top will allow him to pass guard, get dominant positions and threaten with submissions. Nakamura’s only real liability, despite being nicknamed “Iron," is a historically shaky chin, which Usui just does not have the pop to exploit. Unless Usui can target Nakamura’s disgustingly bloated, mangled Sakurabian caulis and aim for a James Thompson-style ear explosion, he figures to drop a decision to the go-getting grappler.