Gastelum looks to answer a bunch of questions in this outing, the
most important being whether or not he can actually make the cut
down to welterweight. Gastelum came to the UFC in 2013 through a
middleweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” where he essentially
fell into the promotion’s lap as a top prospect. All of the hype
around the season centered on Uriah Hall,
but it was an unheralded 21-year-old Gastelum who grinded out a win
over the former Ring of Combat champion in the season finale. From
there, Gastelum cut down to what seemed like his natural weight of
170 pounds and mounted a successful campaign, buoyed by the UFC
seeing an opportunity to promote a fresh Mexican-American star.
Within two years, Gastelum was matched with Tyron
Woodley in a fight that figured to have the winner on the
shortlist of title contenders. That is where things went haywire
for Gastelum, who was hospitalized during his weight cut but still
managed to weigh in—nine pounds over the weight limit—and put in an
understandably flat performance. The UFC forced Gastelum to move up
to middleweight for one more fight, but a return to welterweight
for a few more bouts seemed to be going fine—until he once again
blew weight for a fight against Donald
Cerrone, forcing what would become a full-time move back to 185
pounds. Gastelum’s resume at middleweight was a strange one for a
few years, as his rise through the division was built on the backs
of former title contenders clearly past their primes. While
Gastelum put in the performance of his career against Israel
Adesanya, it was followed by a slide of four losses in six
fights that showed he had not evolved all that much from his form
nearly a decade prior. It is understandable that Gastelum would
look to coast on his natural talent up until the point that things
stopped working, and the good news is that his April win over
Chris
Curtis saw him show some long-overdue evolution in his
pressure-heavy approach. If he is truly locked in now, over a
decade into his UFC career, there is a chance he has found the
level of dedication that could overcome his previous struggles
making 170 pounds. However, even if he makes weight, he will still
have issues to overcome when he makes it into the cage, as the UFC
did not do him any matchmaking favors against Brady.
Brady was clearly ready for the big time ahead of his UFC debut in
2019, though there were some concerns about how he would fare with
the move up in competition. A wrestler by trade, Brady’s best
regional performances saw him outwork and outlast his opponents—a
luxury he might not have at the UFC level. Brady quickly cast those
issues aside. His striking showed up in better form than expected
and his wrestling remained a legitimate strength, allowing him to
bully opponents and take them out of fights during his charge up
the welterweight ladder. A big spot against Michael
Chiesa in 2021 was a breakout win that did raise some concerns
going forward for Brady. While he was impressively able to
overpower Chiesa for a lot of the fight, the rare moments where he
could not do so made his striking look like a liability against top
opponents. Those worries came home to roost against Belal
Muhammad in 2022, as the former Titan Fighting Championship
titleholder managed to neutralize Brady’s wrestling and turn things
into a bit of a rout. Brady’s physical strength gives him a high
floor for as long as he is in physical prime—a bit of a concern
given his recent recovery from a major staph infection—but it would
be nice to see him show some evolution against Gastelum to prove he
is ready for a step up to the welterweight elite. Even without
that, this is still a fascinating litmus test for Gastelum at 170
pounds. He will be back at some physical parity and was difficult
to outwrestle even at middleweight. Still, Brady is strong enough
to test out Gastelum’s physicality and cardio, the latter being a
major question given how difficult his weight cut figures to be.
The bet is that Gastelum can do enough to strand Brady on the feet
for two out of three rounds and take this through sheer
consistency, but the matchmakers got this one right. The pick is
Gastelum via decision.
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