Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rothwell vs. Dos Santos’

Light Heavyweights

Igor Pokrajac (28-12) vs. Jan Blachowicz (18-5)

THE MATCHUP: Margins are the name of the game in this matchup of inconsistent light heavyweights. Three first-round finishes on the European regional circuit see Croatian kickboxer Pokrajac return to the UFC, but his last stint in the promotion ended with a five-fight losing streak -- minus one overturned result.

Blachowicz has been far more consistent but not much more reliable. Blachowicz is a fairly powerless kickboxer without a strong wrestling game, and that’s a difficult style to maintain at this level of competition, especially without the kind of volume that has kept similar fighters like Michael Bisping and Nate Diaz afloat. Blachowicz has an excellent sense of distance, and as such, he is difficult to hit at range, where he relies heavily on his jab and left kick to rack up points.

Pokrajac throws more than Blachowicz but still has a tendency to fight in spurts, which makes him inefficient as a pressure fighter. He is fond of the clinch but not active enough to be a serious threat there -- a trait he shares with Blachowicz. Knees and elbows will still be Pokrajac’s friend in this matchup, but whether or not he can consistently tie up Blachowicz is another matter. Of the two, Blachowicz has the far superior footwork, and he will wear down Pokrajac whenever the two find themselves at range.

THE ODDS: Blachowicz (-350), Pokrajac (+290)

THE PICK: Blachowicz has been underwhelming as a UFC fighter, but he has also fought three of the best the light heavyweight division has to offer. Pokrajac does not have the wrestling to control Blachowicz the way Corey Anderson did, and he does not pressure as consistently as Jimi Manuwa. He is also far more hittable. All of this likely leads to a Blachowicz win. Blachowicz by third-round TKO is the pick.

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