Preview: UFC 213 ‘Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2’

Heavyweights

Travis Browne (18-6-1) vs. Alexey Oleynik (51-10-1): After a dispiriting 2016 campaign, Browne seemed to finally rediscover his style and comfort in a bout with Derrick Lewis in February. He relied heavily on his kicks, making the most of his 6-foot-7 frame and eschewing the awkward boxing that had marked his last five fights. He stayed light on his feet and hurt Lewis badly with a series of body shots. Then, Lewis knocked him out. Provided referee Mario Yamasaki’s abysmally late stoppage has not caused him any serious harm, however, Browne should be able to build on that fleeting success in this fight. Oleynik is an odd fighter. In his last bout, he secured what turned out to be the first Ezekiel choke in UFC history, though it was actually the 10th on his ledger. Among Oleynik’s 42 other submissions, you will find a number of scarf-hold headlocks, several heel hooks and even the rare bulldog choke. This eclectic arsenal of submission holds is precisely the kind of thing that tends to trouble a fighter who, like Browne, cannot seem to settle on any one style long enough to fill out all of its gaps. Creating the opportunity for such a submission, however, will be another matter. Browne boasts an impressive 83 percent rate of takedown defense, and his agility should allow him to avoid Oleynik’s range. Always a plodder, Oleynik has only grown slower and stiffer as he enters his 40s. At range, Browne’s striking arsenal will be the deciding factor, and if Oleynik stalls out on a takedown attempt against the fence, we may very well witness the long-awaited return of the Hawaiian’s famous “hellbows.” Browne by second-round TKO is the pick.

Welterweights

Chad Laprise (12-2) vs. Brian Camozzi (7-3): Part of what seemed to throw off Camozzi in his UFC debut was the size of his opponent. Unlike most of the 6-foot-3 fighter’s foes, Randy Brown was taller and longer, able to sneak in quick shots as Camozzi was resetting after his own attacks. Laprise will not enjoy the same advantages, standing at 5-foot-10 and giving up a whopping five and a half inches in reach. What Laprise lacks in size, however, he typically makes up in speed and skill. A Tristar Gym fighter, Laprise’s striking is more or less the model of what Firas Zahabi tries to teach his fighters. He moves his feet well, managing distance and taking angles both on offense and defense. A versatile striker, Laprise can work behind a quick jab, slam home dynamic kicks and land devastating punches on the counter. Strong, athletic fighters have given Laprise trouble in the past and he has shown a tendency to gas in later rounds, but for all his size, Camozzi, like his big brother, usually finds himself on the wrong end of the athleticism scale. Camozzi is a technical and crafty striker. Like many tall fighters, his defense is rather porous when opponents force their way past his reach, but he will tie up and score knees in the clinch if given the chance. Camozzi is a prolific leg kicker, and he will need those kicks to neutralize Laprise’s movement. In the end, Laprise’s quickness and counterpunching acumen should be the deciding factors. Laprise by first-round TKO is the pick.

Welterweights

Jordan Mein (29-11) vs. Belal Muhammad (11-2): After entering the UFC accompanied by a great deal of hype, Muhammad quickly ran into trouble. A defeat in his short-notice appointment with Alan Jouban can hardly be held against him, as Muhammad survived a trio of knockdowns and nearly got the finish himself in the third round; however, losing to Vicente Luque in just over a minute did his career no favors. In a comeback bout with Randy Brown, however, Muhammad showed his class, chewing up the legs of the top prospect and using tactical takedowns to keep him from gaining any positive momentum. A similar approach could yield great rewards against Mein. At 27, Mein is sometimes spoken of as a developing prospect, but in truth, he is a veteran of over 10 years, and with 40 professional fights on his ledger, he may be nearing the end of his career. Mein’s recent performances add weight to that theory: He was stopped by a Thiago Alves’ liver kick before being outpaced and outwrestled by Emil Weber Meek a year later. In many ways, Mein’s game is similar to Muhammad’s, but he has struggled to maintain a pace in recent bouts. Those same bouts have revealed a weakness to consistent pressure and, rather crucially, kick-based attacks. Expect Muhammad to work the legs, pick away with his jab and put Mein against the fence and on his back whenever he gets the chance. The pick is Muhammad by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Rob Font (12-2) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-1): These days, bantamweight is clearly one of the very best divisions in MMA. The division is so loaded with top-flight fighters, in fact, that established fighters like Font and Andrade can go sadly overlooked. At 30 years old, Font should be just within his prime, and he looks it. He followed an admirable effort against John Lineker with a succinct knockout of Matt Schnell, and that seems to be the direction in which Font’s style is headed. With just two finishes via strikes to his name prior to entering the UFC, Font has notched all three of his wins within the promotion by knockout, his once piecemeal standup now giving way to a more fluid and aggressive kickboxing arsenal which blends smoothly into an opportunistic submission wrestling game. As for Andrade, he has been a knockout artist throughout his career, having garnered 19 of his 24 wins by that method. With a stiff, awkward bearing, the Brazilian bruiser can present the image of a predictable, hittable opponent. Like some other fighters known for their rigidity -- the great Azumah Nelson comes to mind -- Andrade moves with a jittery, broken rhythm, making him devilishly difficult to time. This makes him a dangerous counterpuncher, and it was the aggressive counterpunching of Schnell that gave Font some trouble early. Font is teak tough, however, one of a select few to take Lineker the distance in the UFC, and his more diverse game, with integrated wrestling and submission skills, should give him the edge down the stretch, though the sharp timing of Andrade will remain a threat throughout. The pick is Font by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Thiago Santos (14-5) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (26-8): Meerschaert’s greatest weakness may also be his greatest strength. His movements on the feet are somewhat ponderous but deliberate. Meerschaert mostly sticks to his methodical pace, which can allow more athletic fighters -- like Santos -- to catch him by surprise. Nonetheless, this pace is the product of a patient mind. Meerschaert is rarely rattled, which may have something to do with the fact that he has never been knocked out, and he has a way of calmly working his way toward the finish no matter what. Typically these finishes come on the ground, where Meerschaert has compiled 19 wins via submission, including the tapouts in his two UFC fights. That could spell trouble for Santos, who was outclassed on the ground in both of his most recent losses. In his last fight, however, Santos showed some new wrinkles, taking down Jack Marshman and delivering some vicious ground-and-pound. Santos’ footwork showed signs of improvement, as well, as he repeatedly denied Marshman’s attempts to back him into the fence. If Meerschaert is vulnerable to dynamic athletes on the feet, then Santos’ repertoire of lightning-quick, laser-guided kicks is a serious threat. If Meerschaert were a better takedown artist, then his chances would be good. As it is, he will likely spend too much time striking with Santos for his own good. The pick is Santos by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Cody Stamann (14-1) vs. Terrion Ware (17-4): Ware is a straightforward boxer who pushes the pace, keeps a tight guard and throws clean punches. Ware bravely met his match when he went five rounds with finisher Luke Sanders in 2015, and a last-second submission loss to current Legacy Fighting Alliance champion Leandro Higo after that was no less discouraging. With a few slightly more forgiving matchups in the meantime, Ware has gotten himself back on the winning track, and he will be eager to make his UFC debut a memorable one. Fellow UFC newcomer Stamman has dropped just one split decision in his 15-fight career, and he made mincemeat of his last two opponents. A few years Ware’s junior, Stamann probably has more upside in general. He is a plus athlete and has a cornily charismatic face, after the fashion of a John Cena. As a striker, Stamann is heavily dependent on his athleticism, and though it rarely fails him, he does seem to run out of ideas from time to time. He can be a persistent chain wrestler but can be outworked on the ground. Ware will happily counter takedowns with submissions and he knows how to work his way back to his feet if need be, but he is far from a standout physical specimen. Stamann should enjoy a considerable strength advantage in the tie-ups. Nonetheless, Ware is spry and dangerous. When he tucks his chin behind his shoulders and sways forward into the pocket, he recalls boxing greats like Bennie Briscoe and Bernard Hopkins, even if he is a good deal rougher around the edges. Ware has never been knocked out, and he is supremely comfortable in even the wildest of exchanges. On short notice, I will take the young veteran over the hot prospect. The pick is Ware by third-round TKO.

Light Heavyweights

Trevin Giles (9-0) vs. James Bochnovic (8-1): Giles’ nickname is “The Problem,” but it really should be “The Immortal.” With power in both hands, Giles attacks in odd rhythms with sudden bursts of speed, creating violent collisions out of thin air. While confidence is essential to Giles’ swaggering style, he does not fall apart easily. He has weathered a few storms and staged plenty of comebacks over the course of his career. His ground game, though sloppy at times, is relentless and brutal. When Giles nailed Brendan Allen’s head to the floor at Legacy Fighting Championship 52, Pat Miletich accurately and succinctly described the scene: “He’s kicking his ass.” When Giles finally secured the rear-naked choke on a punch-drunk Allen midway through Round 2, it felt like a mercy killing. Unfortunately, Giles’ fights are rarely easy. For example, a good portion of the excitement generated by his epic war with veteran Ike Villanueva stemmed from the fact that Giles himself was dropped and otherwise knocked silly on numerous occasions throughout the fight. Bochnovich is crude striker but he can take a punch, and he has some sneaky power of his own. However, Bochnovich’s MMA career has been defined more by his relentless grappling than anything else. He makes his UFC debut on a streak of seven straight submissions. Bochnovich is big but cumbersome. Giles’ speed and agility, reinforced by his brilliant scrambling, should see “The Problem” earn yet another exciting win in his short-notice UFC debut. The pick is Giles by submission in the second round.

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