Card counters in Vegas have one Achilles’ heel, and it’s not the pervasive video cameras: it’s when their rhythm is disrupted by the dealer mixing up the deck, shuffling in new stacks and making a desired card’s location and ultimate destination very difficult to predict.
The tables in mixed martial arts — the negotiating ones — are crippling pundits with the same strategy, slotting the aces of the sport in unexpected patterns. Just when you thought you knew all the answers, they change the questions. (Credit for that phrase goes to “Rowdy” Roddy Piper, and thus ends my pro wrestling reference quota for the year.)
The UFC’s recent acquisitions are indicative of two things: one, that the Las Vegas-based promoter is taking few chances in allowing competition to gain an appreciable edge; and two, the symptom of that is coagulating enough talent to fill their two dozen-plus cards slated for 2007.
Is it a fan’s dream, or a signal of the ultimate monopolization? Keep reading for unsatisfying ambiguity.
Reports continue to circulate
Mirko Filipovic (Pictures), quite possibly the most devastating striker in the sport today, has obligated himself to the UFC. If he signs — and Filipovic is infamous for playing the field in the press arenas — it will represent the first major acquisition of an established talent by the UFC since it somehow coerced
Royce Gracie (Pictures) into one more fight in mid-2006.
The Croatian’s stature in PRIDE is perhaps the most substantial it’s ever been, with an impressive gauntlet conquered by the kickboxer during their Grand Prix event.
“Cro Cop” is undoubtedly the top contender to
Fedor Emelianenko (Pictures)’s title, but that showdown looks to be running parallel to the difficulties DSE management had in putting it together the first time. By the time Filipovic’s foot heals, Emelianenko will be occupied in bodogFIGHT’s sophomore effort, a stolid bout against
Jeff Monson (Pictures) that doesn’t seem to be igniting any enthusiasm.
Remaining in Japan has few benefits for Filipovic. If he fights
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Pictures) a second time, “Cro Cop” risks losing the momentum of the tournament performance and DSE risks a plodding fourth bout between their two alpha male heavyweights. Without Emelianenko’s consent, the Croatian seems destined to spend a good portion of 2007 in flux overseas. There is virtually no one left for him to face.
Getting his hurt on in the Octagon is a different story. Picking apart ground specialist
Marcio Cruz (Pictures), whose stand-up is woefully inferior, would be an interesting introduction; fighting
Andrei Arlovski (Pictures) would be contained fireworks, but should Arlovski win, it cramps
Tim Sylvia (Pictures)’s title picture.
Arlovski would be an appropriate first defense for the Croatian. Regardless, Filipovic’s highlight-reel of a shinbone would usher in new expectations for talent in the most anemic division in the UFC. Fans, casual or ardent, probably wouldn’t tolerate a series of feeder bouts, either, which means more heavyweights with more credentials are likely to follow.
Hopefully, Filipovic won’t remain content to chase Emelianenko’s shadow.
Even the most mentally unfortunate observers could see the writing on the wall: huge six-figure contracts for fighters unknown in the U.S. were a recipe for disaster.
Yet the WFA charged on. For exactly one show.
It’s a telling sign of an organization’s business sense when they adopt a fighter (
Matt Lindland (Pictures)) the UFC deemed incapable of creating interest among audiences and slotting him in their inaugural main event. It’s even more telling when their heavyweight line-up is headlined by a bulbous, de-motivated
Ricco Rodriguez (Pictures).
This past week, the UFC effectively vacuumed up the residue of their venture, guaranteeing no one with more money than sense happens to luck into a winning formula. And the benefits are obvious: in retaining the services of
Quinton Jackson (Pictures) and
Heath Herring (Pictures), they’ve set themselves up for a half-dozen worthy main events in the new year.
Jackson is clearly their prized draft pick, with a personality and charisma that’s literally unrivaled by anyone in the U.S. scene.
Chuck Liddell (Pictures), while a fearsome competitor, is monosyllabic;
Tito Ortiz (Pictures) is often a bore in the ring.
Jackson is a kinetic athlete with the kind of natural charm that you can’t teach in a media relations conference. He’ll walk away with a shoe deal by the end of the year.
While Joe Silva has myriad options for his new recruit, most carry with them an element of risk. As with Filipovic, it would be a waste to throw him to Liddell right away. If he wins, his stature isn’t at the level it needs to be to carry the baton. If he loses, you’d begin to wonder what he’s doing there in the first place.
And with Jackson and Ortiz former training partners, it seems unlikely that they’d agree to face one another unless absolutely necessary.
I’d favor recent Liddell victim
Renato Sobral (Pictures). He has the kind of ground game that would keep Jackson plenty busy, and the kind of respect that would make a win over him a huge leap towards title contention. I suspect the UFC won’t find the choice palatable: If Sobral wins, they’ve just sacrificed a respectable contender.
My suspicion is that Jackson might face
Forrest Griffin (Pictures) in a showcase bout that will do little to damage Griffin’s reputation as a scrapper with a big heart.
Matched correctly, Jackson will be the UFC’s marquee attraction within 18 months.
Fans of
Fedor Emelianenko (Pictures) are beginning to empathize with the pain
Frank Shamrock (Pictures) supporters are accustomed to: with all his gifts, he doesn’t seem motivated to face any truly formidable opposition.
Fedor’s lone fight of 2006 was a pointless rematch with an aging
Mark Coleman (Pictures). And before that came a circus performance against Zulu Jr. Not exactly the stuff legends are made of.
Under Calvin Ayre’s noxiously-phrased bodogFIGHT banner, he looks set to face
Jeff Monson (Pictures), a talented grappler who has nonetheless displayed no propensity for being able to contend with mixed martial arts’ elite. What about the much-debated showdown with
Josh Barnett (Pictures)?
Fedor’s status as a free agent might superficially hint that the world’s most dominant fighter will be able to take his skills on a cross-country tour against other greats. The reality is, any promotion spending piles of money to nab him isn’t going to be too quick to set up a competitive fight and risk a case of buyer’s remorse.
Because of his nomadic preferences, it seems unlikely the UFC would ever agree to have him face
Tim Sylvia (Pictures) in a one-off bout. Nor would they likely attempt to match Filipovic with him: one win and their expensive contract player has just been devalued.
One sincerely hopes Fedor finds himself in the company of elite contenders, and soon.
October’s stateside event in Las Vegas was a box office success. Whether that means PRIDE is positioning itself for life beyond basic Japanese television is still open to debate.
A great live gate can offset expenses for regional shows like King of the Cage, but when your production involves a seven-figure investment in flashing lights, the lack of pay-channel support becomes an open suture.
PRIDE has been desperately attempting to latch onto an established player in the U.S. market, figuring (correctly) that their chances of success are predicated on how pervasive their brand becomes.
Right now, PRIDE is seen as a cult novelty, the “hip” alternative for people who are already declaring the UFC too mainstream for their eclectic tastes. That’s just groovy, but those elitists aren’t going to pay the bills.
Without the kind of television exposure the UFC enjoys, their talent is still a fringe commodity. We know Nogueira and Emelianenko are to MMA what Baryshnikov was to ballet, but who else does?
PRIDE has no shortage of marketable fighters — particularly the primal-looking
Wanderlei Silva (Pictures) — but they currently have no platform to compete with the pervasive exposure of the Ultimate or even Showtime’s newest venture.
Unless they have the capital to hold out until such a deal is in place, I fear 2007 will be the death knell for one of the sport’s most influential promotions.
Pro Elite, the company controlling the premium channel’s MMA model, is set to debut on Feb. 10 with a old-school charmer of a main event:
Frank Shamrock (Pictures) vs.
Renzo Gracie (Pictures).
The timing couldn’t be better, as Gracie was the avatar for the sport for millions of people on a recent installment of “60 Minutes.” (When he launched into some kind of weird metaphor about blood being the “sauce” in a fight, I couldn’t help but feel proud of the articulate, passionate athletes that populate our pastime. And Renzo is at the top of that food chain.)
While the slot isn’t as penetrating as SpikeTV’s offerings, the network also doesn’t have the same expectations as something more widely distributed. Subscriber-based choices on the dial welcome niche offerings and tend to support even middling entries with a long-term foundation.
What this means is that Pro Elite is the most likely of all the new “me toos” hitting the scene to be around at the end of the year; Showtime’s cache means increased respectability, and up-front subscriber fees means there’s little incentive to tune out.
In a perfect world, Showtime would emerge as the sole challenger to the UFC’s throne. Their savvy in promoting combat sports events puts them a cut above the rest; more importantly, isolating two premiere MMA promotions in the U.S. would create a financial windfall for free agents … without the inevitable dilution of great matches a half-dozen one-night stand promotions would surely invite.
But whether boxing guru Gary Shaw can work harmoniously with JD Penn to produce a palatable entry is still on the table.
Let’s see their hand.
For comments, email jrossen@sherdog.com
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