When it rains, it pours, and the last few days in the MMA world may have left you choking and flailing in an attempt to stay afloat. And I mean that in the best way possible.
The weekend was historically jeweled by Affliction's bazillion-dollar "Banned" pay-per-view going head-to-head with the UFC. The problem is that after such an enormous evening of fights, you're bound to be left feeling physically, mentally and fanatically drained.
Of course, everyone knows that the best way to cure a hangover is to keep drinking. In your battle against sobriety, Fighting and Entertainment Group has your back, as they'll serve up the fifth edition of Dream on Monday at the Osaka Castle Hall.
So, what's on tap? Lightweight grand prix action, with some domestic brews like
Tatsuya Kawajiri (Pictures),
Shinya Aoki (Pictures) and
Caol Uno (Pictures), and some imported Philly flavor in
Eddie Alvarez (Pictures).
Extended alcoholism metaphors aside, Norwegian Savages, Arabian Nights with African snakes, everyone's favorite Samoan superhero and semi-Korean super villain, and a cinematic twist for one of MMA's hottest fantasy fights -- all after the jump.
The streets of Kensington, Philadelphia, and the streets of Inashiki, Ibaraki, will reach an intersection at Osaka Castle Hall. Better yet, on this awkward, hypothetical street corner, a vintage street fight is set to break out.
Since his firefight with
Gilbert Melendez (Pictures) on New Year's Eve 2006, Kawajiri has pounded out three relatively pedestrian decisions over
Luiz Azeredo (Pictures),
Kultar Gill (Pictures) and
Luiz Firmino (Pictures). The "Crusher" is long overdue for some frenetic action, especially now with a fighter in front of him with the skills and mentality to engage.
Alvarez, who has quite nicely settled into the lightweight division by snagging impressive victories over Andre "Dida" Amade and
Joachim Hansen (Pictures), seems allergic to inactivity.
The two are similar enough to guarantee action and contrasting enough to make a stylistic matchup interesting. Both can slug on the feet, but Alvarez is by far the faster-fisted fighter and has more natural power. However, while Alvarez may enjoy those natural offensive advantages, the Philadelphian has only once been offensively pressed with strikes -- a TKO loss to
Nick Thompson (Pictures). While the move to lightweight, away from King of Monsters-sized welterweights like Thompson, may help Alvarez in that regard, Kawajiri has definitively shown the ability to take heavy artillery to the grill and keep on fighting.
The ability for either fighter to utilize a Plan B could be pivotal in the bout. If either needs a change of venue to gain the edge, both are capable wrestlers. However, Kawajiri's fantastic takedown defense and underrated technical grappling skills may afford him the better chance to get top position. Should he do so, he could control, pound and perhaps even pass to dominant positions on Alvarez. If Alvarez is able to put Kawajiri on his back, the former Shooto king's underrated abilities to sweep and submit may help him stay in the driver's seat.
Even having broken down these technical facets of the fight, this is a pick 'em. I'm wary of overanalyzing, since the last time I did that in a tournament semifinal, I took
Wanderlei Silva (Pictures) to beat Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. My gut says the "Crusher," and so I'm backing Ibaraki over Philly on the cards after 15 minutes of raw MMA.
After charges of cowardice were levied against him following his unfortunate first bout with
Gesias Cavalcante (Pictures),
Shinya Aoki (Pictures) solidified his place as one of MMA's top lightweights with his well-deserved decision victory in their rematch this past April.
While Aoki affirmed his place,
Caol Uno (Pictures) stormed back to prominence in the sport in May when he grabbed his biggest win in years, choking
Mitsuhiro Ishida (Pictures) right out of the tournament.
Not unlike the Ishida bout, little mind has been paid to this fight due to the fact that many no longer believe Uno has the ability to defeat top fighters. He has lost to the majority of the top fighters he's faced over the last few years, including
Joachim Hansen (Pictures), Andre "Dida" Amade and the aforementioned Cavalcante. The truth is that Uno is still a very capable fighter, though, who can excel against certain styles of opponent.
Shinya Aoki (Pictures) does not necessarily pose the same threats that Uno's recent losses did. Unlike bouts with Hansen, Dida or Cavalcante, Uno is the better striker in this case. He is a technically sound, well-rounded striker and although he doesn't pack a huge punch, Uno showed improved boxing in the Ishida bout. Most importantly for a bout with Aoki, Uno is a fantastic grappler with great wrestling fundamentals and submission savvy -- a far cry from an inevitable highlight reel like Aoki's quarterfinal victim,
Katsuhiko Nagata (Pictures).
While Uno will make things difficult for Aoki, it is simply too hard to pick against the flamboyantly panted lightweight. His ability to employ the unforecastable -- be it flying submissions or unorthodox control mechanisms like the standing jungle gym-style guard Aoki utilized in his rematch with
Akira Kikuchi (Pictures) -- make his ability to out-grapple his opponent extend far beyond conventional analysis of takedowns, guard passing and submissions. Uno has the tools to make lightning strike twice and take another huge victory, but my money is invested in Aoki finding some way to put Uno on the floor and put him in peril long enough to take a grappling-based decision.
If you are to believe the assertions of this article, we will be looking at a finale pitting
Tatsuya Kawajiri (Pictures) against
Shinya Aoki (Pictures). Certainly a final befitting a tournament of this stature, and with
Takanori Gomi (Pictures) poised to be the big fish in the sub-standard Sengoku pond, here we would have the battle to determine the Japanese lightweight torchbearer.
Kawajiri poses a difficult threat to Aoki by being a well-rounded, physical force. Many didn't anticipate Aoki to be able to deal with the similar traits of
Gesias Cavalcante (Pictures), and their first bout notwithstanding, Aoki was still nearly pounded out by Cavalcante in the rematch. Furthermore, while Aoki's win was accomplished in sensational fashion and should not be diminished, for analytical purposes it is necessary to pay some mind to Cavalcante's poorly disguised (read: covered in 83 rolls of tape) torn ACL, which put him on the surgeon's table following the bout.
If a bout with Alvarez delivers what it would seem to promise on paper, Kawajiri will certainly not enter the final bout at 100 percent. Furthermore, it would be silly to count out Aoki, given his ability to force his opponents into his world and invent on-the-spot grappling wizardry. But, so long as Kawajiri is still able-bodied heading into the final, his overwhelming advantage on the feet and his fantastic defensive wrestling and underrated technical grappling should be enough to keep him out of trouble on the ground and on the feet long enough to win. He’ll put strikes on Aoki and keep him out of sorts, as Cavalcante did in their first bout before the unceremonious no contest.
But, what if just by chance, somehow, some way, by freak happenstance or occurrence, there were a different final (not that this article should be second guessed at all)? Let us size up the other potential matchups. You know, just in case.
Should Alvarez knock off the "Crusher" and meet Aoki in the final, you're looking at a matchup that cuts deeper both ways. Alvarez is far quicker and more explosive on the feet than Kawajiri. If he put a flush combination on Aoki, the submission savant would be going to sleep. On the flipside, Alvarez's submission defense still seems like an exploitable aspect. Aoki's ability to out-grapple a seemingly more stalwart grappler in Cavalcante would lead one to think he could do likewise to the Philadelphian. However, if
Jutaro Nakao (Pictures) can fold Aoki like a broken lawn chair while backpedaling, Alvarez would put him into orbit if he planted his feet on a combo.
And what would become of things if Aoki can't do away with the savvy veteran Uno, and MMA's foremost fighter-fashionista creeps into the final?
Having already discussed the fact that Uno's style makes him ill suited for certain opponents, both Kawajiri and Alvarez are two of those opponents. Both are too strong and physical for Uno, who would need to cash in on a perfect submission opportunity against either. While Uno may have a chance of that against Alvarez, his biggest problem is when he can't get in proper range to shoot. Alvarez's striking speed and power would ensure that Uno couldn't get deep on his legs, while potentially capitalizing on Uno's smashable chin. While Uno could close the distance on Kawajiri, he's unlikely to get any advantageous positions. In their March 2004 bout, Kawajiri was better than Uno standing, and physically he was too much for Uno on top (though Kawajiri was robbed of a righteous decision victory when the judges handed Uno a draw). Kawajiri is only bigger, stronger and a better striker in the here-and-now, and Uno would take another 15 minutes of thumping en route to Kawajiri taking the crown.
Due in part to my fascist editors hampering my prolixity and the obvious mismatchiness of this bout, I'll keep it snappy: Shibata gets the hose again.
Reserve fights, especially in Japanese promotions, are mostly for show. Since K-1, Pride and now Dream give preference to a defeated semifinalist to continue in the tournament should a finalist get injured, it would require the perfect astral alignment for a reserve fighter to slide into the tournament. Nonetheless, "Hellboy" and "Black Mamba" will come to fight anyhow, and it should be entertaining if nothing else.
After opening his tournament bid in style in March with a 15-minute whipping of
Kotetsu Boku (Pictures), Hansen was ousted from the tournament in May after dropping a wildly entertaining bout to
Eddie Alvarez (Pictures). Gill wasn't quite as lucky. He didn't escape the opening round, as he lost a hard-fought if not thrilling decision to
Tatsuya Kawajiri (Pictures). While it would be a miracle for either man to get back into the tournament, the fight is important for both on its own merits. Hansen would easily be the most enormous win of Gill's career, validating him as a serious lightweight more so than a guy who gets by because of a pro-wrestling-style gimmick in Japan. Meanwhile Hansen, once an upper-echelon lightweight who still has enormous skill and potential, simply cannot afford another loss if he wants to regain that stature he held previously.
Stylistically, Gill faces an uphill battle. An extremely long and lean lightweight, he uses his reach effectively and has the elapid-style of striking one would anticipate from a fighter nicknamed "Black Mamba." However, while he showed considerably improved takedown defense in the go-around with Kawajiri, he is still not a sterling submission grappler. These things don't exactly line up well for a victory.
Hansen, even if his striking isn't technically fantastic, has both destructive power in his hands and an extremely underrated game on the ground, where the Norwegian can show his skills both as an unorthodox submission threat and an underrated grappling technician.
Gill's improvements since his early days on the Canadian national scene are admirable, but this one is not in the cards for him. Hansen's absurd Asgardian physicality will allow him to wade through the shots Gill throws and do damage of his own. When he gets inside, Hansen's high-amplitude throws and slams will be on the agenda, and that will be the beginning of the end. Hansen will dish out punishment on top, get dominant position and soundly devenomize "Black Mamba.”
In the wake of Pride and the refocusing of the epicenter of MMA away from Japan, there is one thing missing from this sport that I think most fans can agree on: fights getting announced 48 hours or less before showtime.
Thankfully, in this tumultuous week, FEG stepped up to the plate by substituting
Alistair Overeem (Pictures) for
Jerome LeBanner (Pictures) to face
Mark Hunt (Pictures) two days out from the event.
The bout comes with considerable fanfare. Fans have pined for the return of the popular Hunt, who hasn’t fought MMA since his New Year's Eve 2006 loss to
Fedor Emelianenko (Pictures). Overeem provides a much-better-than-anticipated opponent for Hunt, especially given the circumstances. Better yet, the mucho-mercurial Dutchman is actually in one of his upswings, where he's winning fights impressively and looking every bit the talent he truly is.
With underrated wrestling from the clinch and a great submission game highlighted by an ever-nasty guillotine, Overeem has the tools to tap Hunt who, in spite of being absurdly tough, is still green on the ground. The pivotal question is whether Overeem can impose his game on Hunt and keep his gas tank off E, especially coming into the bout on short notice.
Overeem is supremely talented. His recent crushing of
Paul Buentello (Pictures) was the sort of performance that excites MMA fans' minds with the possibilities Overeem offers.
However, the probabilities he offers are a bit grimmer. Coming in on short notice, against a gamebred fighter like
Mark Hunt (Pictures), Overeem's fantastic recent run seems due to end with another miserable crash-and-burn performance. No part of me wants to see it happen for the 417th time, but I expect early offense from Overeem to be withstood by Hunt, who will end up blowing away an exhausted and gasping Overeem late in the first round. I'm dying to be wrong.
Initially scheduled for the chance of a lifetime against Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto,
Joseph Benavidez (Pictures) had his opportunity stripped when Yamamoto showed up on crutches Friday to announce that he'd injured his right knee in sparring and may be facing six months on the shelf. While FEG did a great job in getting
Mark Hunt (Pictures) a late replacement, they didn't do quite so well for the poor protégé of
Urijah Faber (Pictures).
His new opponent,
Junya Kudo (Pictures), is a 132-pounder from Shooto who recently got his Class A Shooto promotion. Unfortunately, last month he faced his first actual Class A opponent,
So Tazawa (Pictures), who beat him down over three lopsided rounds.
Benavidez is a featherweight, and Kudo should be fighting at 123 pounds in Shooto. More importantly than that, Benavidez is much, much better in every area of the game, and this fight should give him ample chance to put his top game on display. Benavidez takes Kudo down and beats on him for as long as he wants, unless he opts for a merciful
submission. Benavidez's big step up will have to wait for another day, but at least he'll get a nice paycheck for what should be an absolute curb-stomping.
Perhaps the only good news that Fighting and Entertainment Group got this week was that despite being rear-ended in a fender bender on Wednesday and having some mild waist and back injuries, promotional star
Hideo Tokoro (Pictures) was still good to go for his bout with
Takeshi Yamazaki (Pictures). When your week's best news is somehow derived from one of your stars being in a car accident, it's probably safe to say it hasn't been a good week.
Thankfully in this case, the show will go on, and it should be entertaining as the winners of the first two featherweight fights in Dream will square off. In May, Yamazaki took a unanimous decision over Pancrase standout
Shoji Maruyama (Pictures). Tokoro turned in a sensational performance last month in one of the year’s most scintillating fights, taking a win on the cards over
Darren Uyenoyama (Pictures).
If and when this bout ends up on the floor, we're looking at serious fireworks. Tokoro is a vastly underappreciated grappler, and his bouts always offer pure technical theatrics on the ground. Helping that situation is the fact that Yamazaki himself butters his bread on the ground as Grabaka's BJJ torchbearer, and he has a generally exciting grappling style as well.
Unfortunately for Yamazaki, Tokoro is not only a better grappler but also possesses both a striking and wrestling advantage. Complicating matters is that Yamazaki is both richly hittable and is not in possession of the most bulletproof chin.
With the improved stand-up Tokoro showed against Uyenoyama, what we will more than likely be treated to is an exciting, scramble-laden fight, but one in which Tokoro is a step ahead throughout. He’ll take either a TKO over a damageable Yamazaki or an impressive decision.
Printer Friendly