Preview: UFC 217 ‘Bisping vs. St. Pierre’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s second trip to Madison Square Garden is finally upon us, which means before this weekend is over, either Georges St. Pierre will be the middleweight ruler of the MMA world or Michael Bisping will own wins over GSP, Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva.

There is a cynical side to this historic fight, as we know St. Pierre is trying to cherry pick a title in a second weight class against a Cinderella-esque champion that people still cannot believe won the belt at all. Furthermore, we know that even if Robert Whittaker had three healthy knees instead of one, the promotion would have made this fight in hopes of creating a blockbuster event without Conor McGregor present. Nonetheless, we could not have reasonably conceived of a Bisping-St. Pierre showdown when GSP left the sport four years ago. If the UFC’s promotional bluster is to be believed, the Bisping-St. Pierre winner will meet aforementioned interim champion Whittaker at UFC 221 in February in Perth, Australia. Sorry, Western Australia, but I have a feeling you are due to be swerved.

However, let us not look past UFC 217 quite yet. In addition to Bisping-St. Pierre, we have perhaps the most significant bantamweight bout in the sport’s history, as the undefeated Cody Garbrandt risks his title against former Team Alpha Male training partner T.J. Dillashaw. Meanwhile, the queen of the sport, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, goes for her sixth title defense against Rose Namajunas.

Now on with the odds and analysis for UFC 217 “Bisping vs. St. Pierre” on Saturday in New York:

UFC Middleweight Championship

Michael Bisping (30-7) vs. Georges St. Pierre (25-2)

ODDS: Bisping (-110), St. Pierre (-110)

ANALYSIS: Even the most casually interested or informed onlookers are aware that the crux of this surreal yet sensational bout is St. Pierre’s holistic fitness. What does arguably the greatest fighter ever look like after four years away from the cage while moving up in weight? Given the extent to which his incredible athleticism helped inform his fighting success, how much has he athletically regressed, if at all? Knowing the mental toll fighting took on him and his frank discussion of the psychological hurdles that have plagued him throughout his incredible career, where is St. Pierre’s head at this stage of his career?

MMA does not have any suitable precedents for this. Yes, we have had some legendary fighters retire and come back, but retirements in MMA tend to last 12-18 months, and no fighters who called it a day and then picked the gloves back up were ever as good as St. Pierre. This is simply not the same thing as Randy Couture coming back 13 months after retiring to paste Tim Sylvia. Maybe the closest analog we have in prizefighting is “Sugar” Ray Leonard’s return after a three-year retirement in 1987 and his defeat of Marvelous Marvin Hagler, right down to the strategic fashion in which Leonard and St. Pierre waited for a specific opponent at a specific time to help put the odds in their favor. Even then, Leonard was 30 years old when he came back and topped Hagler; St. Pierre is 36.

Fortunately, we at least have some concrete knowledge heading into the fight, chiefly in terms of style and praxis. St. Pierre was so dominant throughout his second welterweight title reign that it became almost a snide joke to list off his preferred techniques: jab, cross, low kick, switch-step Superman punch, power double, knee tap and spinning back kick on a rare occasion. While it would be a stretch to say those techniques comprise his entire oeuvre, it is truly incredible to think of what St. Pierre achieved -- and in dominant fashion -- while relying on so many basic, textbook maneuvers. Likewise, we know that Bisping is a volume striker who establishes range with his kicks, rushes with punching combinations and does the bulk of his real damage in close quarters or the clinch. He is one of the best conditioned fighters in the sport’s history, ratcheting up his output as the fight rolls along. “The Count” has gone the full 25 minutes four times in his career, and he throws just under 59 significant strikes in an average fifth round.

Those who imagine a St. Pierre triumph likely envision a fight similar to Bisping’s loss to Tim Kennedy, who took him down five times and cut through his guard with shocking regularity and success for 25 minutes; Bisping backers foresee a cross between GSP’s last bout, his contentious decision win over Johny Hendricks, and perhaps even his first fight with Matt Serra. However, Kennedy is a much bigger and stronger than St. Pierre, who is very much a welterweight fighting a true middleweight. Likewise, Bisping has shored up his defensive wrestling and is great at scrambling back to his feet when taken down; with that said he has nowhere near the defensive wrestling Hendricks brings to the table.

It is hard to imagine St. Pierre’s wrestling getting stonewalled, but it is not as if the Hendricks bout was the first time he struggled. In fact, while he won all five rounds, “Rush” seemed to slow in the middle of his fight with Nick Diaz, noted for his flimsy takedown defense, and struggled to take him down and keep him there along the fence in the third and fourth rounds. St. Pierre has the better jab and an inch of reach in his favor, and traditionally, a good jab always finds Bisping’s face, regardless of his opponent. Is that enough to make Bisping attack, so he can hit that legendary level change and dump him? What if he has to do it over and over again? What if it happens near the fence, where Bisping can snake up, push his head down and beat on his dome while he tries to clasp his hands?

In their respective primes, at their athletic peaks, St. Pierre winning a tough-but-tidy decision seems like the call. However, four years is an incredibly long time to be absent, not just from elite competition but any competition whatsoever. There were already signs in the Diaz and Hendricks bouts that St. Pierre was perhaps athletically declining, and that natural process could only have continued. If GSP steps into the Octagon in MSG in vintage form, he will add another incredible accomplishment to what is already perhaps the best resume in MMA history. However, I suspect this will not be a classic “Rush” performance but perhaps more of a classic Bisping effort, as “The Count” comes alive over the second half of the fight, lands more strikes and takes a close, competitive decision.

Next Fight » Garbrandt vs. Dillashaw