In early 2013, Henderson signed an eight-fight contract with UFC. The length of the contract reflected the general feeling that Henderson would be with the UFC for a long time to come. According to a report by MMAFighting’s Dave Meltzer, that contract comes to an end against Masvidal in the UFC Fight Night 79 main event, and Henderson will test free agency upon its completion. That’s not a route many UFC fighters of Henderson’s caliber take, and it could go significantly better or worse depending on how he fares against Masvidal.
Roy Nelson took a similar tact when his UFC contract was up for renewal in 2013. He was riding a three-fight winning streak and decided he would finish out his contract and then try out free agency. Unfortunately for “Big Country,” that final fight was against a young fighter by the name of Stipe Miocic. Nelson became Miocic’s highest-profile victim, and he entered free agency with only a fraction of the leverage he hoped to possess.
In some key ways, Henderson’s play makes a lot of sense. The biggest point of leverage the UFC has in negotiations with fighters is its championships. This is important on two fronts. From a competitive standpoint, winning a UFC title means that you are regarded as the best fighter in the world in your division. That’s why fighters get into the sport. Equally as important, winning titles means the opportunity for pay-per-view bonuses and the biggest paydays available in MMA. Henderson, however, is now more in the Rich Franklin role of a fighter outside the title picture and just taking the most intriguing fights available.
Henderson lost via first-round knockout to the current UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos; he was submitted in the first round by No. 1 contender Anthony Pettis; and he just concluded a trilogy with and lost to No. 2 contender and next title challenger Donald Cerrone. This shouldn’t serve as an indictment of the man, as these are the only fighters to defeat him since 2007. It’s just his unfortunate luck that his losses have come to the fighters most likely to hold the lightweight title over the next few years. He’s blocked out of the title picture in his natural weight class.
Facing this reality, Henderson is simply taking the best possible fights at either 155 pounds or 170 pounds. There’s nothing wrong with that, but he can do that in the UFC or outside the UFC. The key differentiator is who can offer him the most money, and that’s an open question. The UFC has the resources to make solid offers to fighters like Henderson, but there are a number of other potential suitors, as well. Henderson is also 32 years old, an age that would allow him to go elsewhere and still potentially return for one last UFC run.
Under Scott Coker, Bellator MMA has put an emphasis on the lightweight division. Incumbents like Will Brooks and Michael Chandler are among Bellator’s best homegrown talents. Added to them are the likes of Josh Thomson and Melvin Guillard. Add in welterweights like Paul Daley and Andrey Koreshkov, and there are plenty of matchups for Henderson in Bellator. Bellator can also sell Henderson on the greater ability to utilize sponsorships, a benefit that has been trumpeted by many as a potential difference maker since the UFC reached its deal with Reebok.
Henderson’s Korean heritage opens up a few other possibilities that many fighters would not have. One Championship has in general avoided bidding for top talent from North America but has made the exception here and there for the right fighters. It might view Henderson as fitting that mold and helping in South Korea, in particular. How he fares in South Korea this weekend could play a role in that calculation. A Henderson-Ben Askren matchup would easily garner the most interest in One Championship history among North American MMA fans.
There’s also the looming presence of Nobuyuki Sakakibara and Rizin Fighting Federation. Rizin currently has money to throw around, and success on New Year’s Eve could mean Rizin bidding for fighters like Henderson. Then again, that money could dry up in a hurry if Rizin isn’t able to gain traction in Japan. Henderson has history in that market, having headlined the first UFC event in Japan under Zuffa management.
All of these options are intriguing, but the opportunities may dry up depending on how Henderson looks against Masvidal. Henderson is expected to win the fight, and it will hard to sell a “Smooth” signing as an exciting coup if he just dropped a fight to a significant -- albeit dangerous -- underdog. The stakes are sky high for Henderson.
Those stakes are also high for other fighters who will be in Henderson’s position. It’s a test as to how they might do if they took the same gamble. If Henderson succeeds in getting a big contract, it portends well for others. If it backfires for him, other fighters will notice that, too. There will be no shortage of interested observers when the former champion takes on Masvidal, and the pressure is firmly on Henderson.