UFC 208 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Holm vs. De Randamie
The inaugural Ultimate Fighting Championship women’s featherweight title bout is a bit of a strange offering, to say the least.
In one corner is former bantamweight queen Holly Holm. Despite being a decorated boxing champion and the first athlete ever to win championships in both boxing and mixed martial arts, Holm is coming off of a winless 2016. Following a perfect 10-0 start to her MMA career, which culminated in an all-time upset against then-champ Ronda Rousey, “The Preacher’s Daughter” has dropped two consecutive bouts. She was last seen in July, when she lost a unanimous decision to top contender Valentina Shevchenko. The UFC 208 main event on Saturday in Brooklyn, New York (online betting), will be her first fight of 2017.
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Regardless of the circumstances, the pairing of two talented striking stylists has a lot of potential. Let us take a look at the tale of the tape:
Anthropometrically, both women are similar, but de Randamie has the slight edge. She is an inch taller with a two-inch reach advantage, which could have an impact on how the fight unfurls since the two combatants are primarily strikers. To boot, she is three years younger. At 35, Holm is around the age where decline often starts to set in, and coming off of two losses, it will be interesting to see how she will perform. Then again, both women have similar wear and tear on their bodies: Between boxing, kickboxing and MMA, Holm has a total of 53 fights and de Randamie has 46.
Although “The Iron Lady” started her professional MMA career three
years earlier, Holm has more fights and has spent more time in the
Octagon. Part of that disparity in cage time, however, is a result
of the difference in finish rate. Holm has only finished one of her
opponents, whereas de Randamie has finished three. Another part is
the fact that Holm has been in the championship rounds twice in the
UFC, while de Randamie has never been past Round 3.
The final aspect to consider here is the layoff. Both are coming off of longer-than-usual layoffs. De Randamie has been inactive for about two and a half months longer than Holm, but at the same time, she is returning after a win; Holm is not. This might mean they are both well-rested and healthy for the fight, but it could also mean that ring rust could play a role in both of their performances.
They both train in high-level camps, so it is a certainty that they will be well-prepared for each other. Since both are accomplished strikers, the bout will likely take place primarily on the feet. Here is what the striking numbers say:
Holm and de Randamie come from different striking backgrounds but have translated their skills to MMA in similar fashions.
Holm likes to keep her distance and tends to do so through constant movement and a high-volume offense. Of all her attempted strikes, 95 percent of them come from distance, whereas only four percent and one percent come in the clinch or on the ground, respectively. Head strikes account for 71 percent of her output, with body shots and leg kicks accounting for the remaining 17 percent and 12 percent. Holm is not a particularly accurate striker. She throws strikes that have little chance of actually connecting as a means to make her opponents hesitant and prevent them from getting in a rhythm. Her defense is solid, but it is mostly predicated on maintaining distance; she leaves herself open to get hit in closer exchanges and would prefer to pick shots from the outside instead of engaging in the pocket.
Oddly enough, de Randamie is a slightly busier striker but still manages to be more accurate and less hittable. That is a rare assortment of attributes. Her preferred target is similar to Holm’s: 78 percent of her strikes are aimed at the head, 13 percent are aimed to the body and nine percent are leg kicks. Her preferred range is slightly more balanced but still predominantly from the outside: 83 percent of her strikes are thrown from distance, while the rest are in the clinch. “The Iron Lady” has only thrown one strike on the ground in her entire career in Strikeforce and the UFC. The main difference between her and Holm is her comfort in the clinch, a natural byproduct of her muay Thai background. She has enjoyed a substantial size advantage in most of her fights and has used that physicality to deliver punishing knees in the clinch.
Both are capable of knocking opponents down or out, but “The Iron Lady” is the more naturally powerful striker, whereas Holm’s timing and quickness have been behind her most devastating strikes. De Randamie has been knocked out in the UFC before, courtesy of Amanda Nunes; Holm has not. On the other hand, she has been knocked out twice before -- once against Anne Sophie Mathis in the boxing ring in 2011 and once against Trisha Hill in a kickboxing match in 2003.
Holm and de Randamie have legit striking pedigrees and like to stay on the outside. This could just as easily be a brilliant technical battle as it could be a slow and tepid affair. Either way, it is almost a guarantee that the fight will take place entirely on the feet. The grappling statistics tell us why:
There is very little data for either contender. This is not a surprise given their striking backgrounds. “The Iron Lady” has only attempted one takedown during her Strikeforce and UFC career, and she did not complete it. She has advanced position on the ground once and attempted one submission, which did not stick. Her takedown defense has been stalwart for the most part, and nobody has attempted to submit her yet.
Similarly, Holm has barely dabbled with takedowns. She is 2-for-2 in her career, though she has never advanced her position or attempted a submission. Only Miesha Tate has tried to submit her, and it took two attempts to get the final tap. “The Preacher’s Daughter” has strong takedown defense, but it is unlikely that she will need it against de Randamie.
All things considered, it would be nothing short of shocking for either of them to deviate from their primary strength and turn this into a grappling match. If they do, it will show us a new aspect of their game that we have yet to see thus far.
Final Word
The women’s featherweight division was meant for Cristiane Justino, and yet the first title fight will take place in her absence. Still, this is an interesting fight that could play out in any number of ways. It could go either way, and as such, the betting odds are mixed. Even though the former bantamweight champion is the more known commodity, she is the slight underdog in this fight. “The Iron Lady” is in the -117 to -135 range, while Holm is anywhere between +105 and -110 depending on where you look. There are a lot of questions that go beyond the technical matchup, which is itself anyone’s guess. Holm is older, but she has actually fought at the highest levels of women’s MMA, whereas de Randamie, for the most part, has not. Either way, it will either be a return to form for a former champ or a coming-out party for a new one.
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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