What a difference a year makes.

With Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson (Pictures) set to square off against Ken Shamrock (Pictures) at the EliteXC show on Oct. 4 in Sunrise, Fla., Ferguson will likely be a solid favorite in his fourth bout -- his second straight before a nationally televised CBS audience.

Prior to his professional debut last November, Ferguson’s skills, or perceived lack of them, elicited heated debate in the mixed martial arts community. After three wins, the latest a gutsy third-round stoppage of James Thompson (Pictures) in May, he seems to possess at least the requisite heart and upside to position himself perfectly for a win against Shamrock -- the UFC Hall-of-Famer who has dropped his last five fights and seven of his last eight, six via knockout.

All in all, it seems like the kind of smart matchmaking, coupled with a massive live network audience, designed to build up Ferguson by exposing him to a reasonable degree of risk with the potential for maximum payoff. But there’s many a slip twixt a cup and lip, especially in MMA. Here are three key factors that will determine if Slice continues his dizzying ride up the legitimacy ladder against Shamrock or if the 44-year-old scores the kind of upset that can punctuate a career.

Do what you do best

Kimbo can bang and will clearly be looking to unload his big punches and avoid a ground fight. Shamrock, never confused with the likes of a Maurice Smith (Pictures) or Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic standing, has looked especially stiff on his feet in recent outings. Facing journeyman Robert “Buzz” Berry in his last bout, Shamrock never got untracked and looked like a deer caught in headlights as soon as he was struck, eventually succumbing to a first-round TKO.

Slice’s ground game remains a question mark but not as big as it used to be. Regardless of the haters and critics, it isn’t every day that a guy takes a pounding against an experienced veteran like Thompson -- much of it on his back -- escapes from numerous bad positions and rebounds with a highlight-reel stoppage in a three-round war. Especially when he’s fought a total of 62 seconds in his first two bouts.

Sweep aside the natural backlash against the Internet hype that fueled his rise, and Ferguson is an impressive prospect. He showed a patience and tactical awareness, a coolness under fire, that you can’t teach. When Thompson was elbowing his head in their fight, it no doubt caused multiple panic attacks among EliteXC management. But “Slice” kept his wits and banged out the win with a Rocky-style comeback. Love him or hate him, he’s a baller who will keep throwing until he’s got nothing left.

Regardless, Shamrock has to take this fight to the ground. He always had a good combination of physical strength and positional dominance when he could get a guy on his back. Even at his advanced age, when the legs, reflexes and durability might be going, he can still rely on rote muscle memory to grapple and control Kimbo if he can get him down.

Create momentum early

After three one-sided losses to Tito Ortiz (Pictures), Shamrock’s ability to assert himself early in fights seems to be as much a casualty as anything else. Watching him against Berry made it obvious that his best years are a half-decade or more behind him. But an aging fighter can take stock in the fact that he’s dealt with tough moments. Can Ferguson? Surely, Shamrock will get an adrenaline boost if he can do something effective early, perhaps a solid leg kick or takedown. Maybe he can expose the still-green Kimbo with some grappling move that shows their vast gap in experience.

Whatever it is, Shamrock has to walk the line between applying his strengths against dumbing it down into a duck-and-let-them-fly slugfest. That’s the strategy David “Tank” Abbott (Pictures) applied, and he got his head handed to him. Abbott landed his money right hand, and Ferguson merely shrugged it off and knocked him out.

For Ferguson, this fight invites all sorts of opportunity, mostly because he should be the superior fighter in a standing match and he’s probably only going to be better off the Thompson fight. Going three rounds for the first time is a huge asset for any developing fighter. It gives him a sense of confidence in what he can push himself to do, while not panicking that he’s going to gas on the back end of the bout.

Ferguson should be able to push the pace and open up hitting on all cylinders, which means he’ll be headhunting and looking to score a big win. If Shamrock’s latest performances are any indication, a bomb or two from Ferguson should be all he needs to notch the win.

Sweep the leg, Kenny

Leg locks are almost a forgotten art in MMA, mostly because the standard counter is well known -- twist yourself into a negating position and pound the other guy in the face. But a good leg lock is pretty hard to defend against if it’s set up correctly against an inexperienced opponent. Shamrock isn’t likely to blast Ferguson out on the feet, and every sequence he spends risking himself further reduces his chances.

If he can’t take Ferguson down via conventional means (leg shoot, clinch or strike), Shamrock can always fall back on pulling guard from a tie-up. From there, it’s standard jiu-jitsu to set up Ferguson for a leg submission. And while his billing as the “World’s Most Dangerous Man” was mainly a professional wrestling shtick designed to capitalize on his MMA career, Shamrock does have decent leg attacks.

Trainer Bas Rutten (Pictures) surely knows this and will have his charge ready to avoid Shamrock’s attempts. But training against leg locks and actually defending against one is an especially big leap. Just ask Brock Lesnar (Pictures).

Ferguson should be aware of the veteran’s tricks. It might be tempting to fall into Shamrock’s guard and pound him out from there if he’s evasive and unwilling to trade standing (a long shot, considering Shamrock’s leaky defense of late). But Shamrock has forgotten more about MMA than most guys know, and it’s that kind of veteran savvy that can turn around fights.

Ferguson is still in his nascent phase of MMA, seeing moves and sequences as they materialize, and Shamrock can take advantage of that on the ground. He’s 44, but in a grappling match, he could still pose problems, particularly if he gets on top. Shamrock is still a good ground-and-pound artist and aggressive enough to create problems for Ferguson if he can put him on his back.

Conclusion

This kind of matchmaking gives the EliteXC/CBS partnership a shot in the arm, while giving critics a potential windfall of material, regardless of the result. Whatever happens, it’s likely to be exciting, and a plot twist or two -- as the Thompson bout unexpectedly provided -- would be an added bonus if Ferguson notches another victory.

If Shamrock wins, it would definitely cap off the longest-running active career in the sport, along with a healthy dose of schadenfreude for critics of this match. If he does pull off the upset, you should probably mute your television at the time of the stoppage, because you’ll hear UFC president Dana White laughing.

That’s the impetus to ensure that almost everyone will be watching.