The Staples Center will play host to UFC 104 “Machida vs. Shogun” this Saturday in Los Angeles. More importantly, it will play host to a night likely to decide the future of the light heavyweight division.

Reigning champion Lyoto Machida will enter undefeated and unquestioned as one of the sport’s pound-for-pound best, a lofty status that once belonged to challenger Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The 2005 Pride middleweight grand prix winner can reclaim his place by taking out the man leading the renaissance of traditional martial arts.

If that does not get you interested in forking over the cash for the pay-per-view, then consider the prospect of watching Cain Velasquez turn heads with his “Brown Pride” tattoo. Throw in mega-athlete Anthony Johnson and his bout with mega-judoka Yoshiyuki Yoshida, as well as the possibility of Joe Stevenson once again moving into Ralph Macchio mode, and saving for junior’s college tuition becomes secondary to this live event.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua

The Breakdown: Two years into a UFC run that was supposed to be a cakewalk to title town, Rua has finally earned his opportunity; his timing could not have been worse. Machida currently wears the light heavyweight gold and finds himself in the midst of an absurdly dominant run that has the whole world wondering why it took so long for karate to come back in vogue. Setting that aside, if Rua plans on doing more than hitting the mat face first, he has to turn the tables on Machida by disrupting the champion’s offense before he gets a chance to return the favor.

While Machida’s accuracy, movement and defense are the bedrocks of his success, his ability to short-circuit opponents by keeping them off balance makes him so much more dangerous. Rua’s usual Chute Boxe-bred muay-Thai-meets-tae-kwon-do style will not work against someone who sees the tiniest of opportunities as clearly as an owl sees a mouse in the dead of night. The only way Rua can turn this fight in his favor is by controlling distance at all times.

Machida’s Willie Pep-level movement effectively masks his short reach, but Rua can expose that flaw by keeping his punches straight and his kicks tight. As soon as Machida tries to rush inside, Rua needs to counter by going to the clinch and controlling the champion before he gets a chance to use trips. It’s a nuanced strategy, and considering Rua’s go-for-broke style, it may not be one he can implement. Even if he does, he still walks a fine line against one of the sport’s elite.

The X-Factor: Most fans are accustomed to seeing Rua slug it out standing, but “Shogun” was at his best when his ground game was just as dangerous -- if not more so -- than his striking. Assuming he can out-grapple Machida seems a stretch since we have seen enough of the champion on the mats to know he’s hardly a free ride, but taking down Machida remains an approach few have attempted. Even if it means pulling guard, Rua should at least test the waters with Machida on the floor before committing himself to a kickboxing match with a singular breed of striker.

Too many forget that Rua came awfully close to tapping out Ricardo Arona, and before his injury issues all but crippled him, many observers were of the opinion that his jiu-jitsu was his greatest weapon. Rediscovering that part of his game could give Rua the edge he needs, considering Machida is unaccustomed to being tested by a grappler of his caliber.

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The Bottom Line: It’s going to take someone who can outthink Machida to beat him, and Rua is more instinct than IQ once the cage door closes. A valiant effort by the challenger falls short, as Machida puts away “Shogun” with a clinch combination of knees and a lightbulb-burning left hook.