UFC Fight Night 126 Preview: ‘Cowboy vs. Medeiros’

Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis (18-5) vs. Marcin Tybura (16-3)

ODDS: Tybura (-145), Lewis (+125)

ANALYSIS: On any given UFC card, there is always one bout for which I cannot quite grasp the public odds. This is that fight.

I understand where line-setters and the betting public are coming from, no doubt. Tybura is an infinitely better, smarter, sounder grappler than Lewis in all areas. However, MMA just does not work like that; the crafty jiu-jitsu player at this juncture in history just does not walk forward and manufacture takedowns. In fact, this is the biggest hole in the Pole’s game. Tybura is not a takedown artist; he is a grabber. Tybura simply uses the most rudimentary combinations to close the distance and then simply tries to walk into the clinch, where he buys takedowns. This is not a recipe for success against “The Black Beast.”

I do not think it is discourteous to call Lewis a “lazy” fighter. I know FightMetric is only in the alpha stages of tracking UFC fighters’ movement around the cage, but Lewis is not a mover. The man essentially stands in an upright muay Thai position, minimally moving his feet based on his opponent. What makes the 33-year-old Texan so effective is the fact he is blessed with outrageous power. When Lewis hits people -- the biggest humans in MMA, in his case -- the impact is simply different. They go down as if they have taken two taser darts to the neck. It is uncommon, bizarre and, frankly, scary. At 6-foot-3 and enjoying an inch of reach on Tybura, Lewis’ offensive oeuvre is not reliant on distance striking. Yes, the man can land an overhand right and put you to sleep, but he is an incredibly diverse and skilled clinch fighter, one who can rip off a single in-line elbow or knee from the collar tie and wreck your whole life.

This is miserable for Tybura. He is not a natural wrestler. He uses his form striking to transition to the clinch to set up his game, but that game is not a sophisticated takedown art. Tybura steadily tries to close multiple feet of distance with one jab and a rush with his hands out. Once in the clinch, he is not an expert reaper of the foot or capable of clever chain takedowns like Fabricio Werdum; Tybura simply tries to drag you down. This is the kind of physical space in which Lewis thrives. While his 57 percent takedown defense in the UFC is pedestrian, most of the takedowns the Texan concedes are up against the fence. That is bad news for Tybura. Lewis is an unnaturally skilled in-fighter for his size, racking up many of his 16 career KOs from in the clinch, where he lands hockey uppercuts, elbows and knees.

Essentially, Tybura’s place of operation is not a place of safety in this fight. Lewis has all the power in the world to zap him from distance, and even if “Tybur” can put him on the mat, it will come in close and up against the fence, where Lewis can potentially stand up and nuke him with one fell swoop. This is MMA, folks. I am betting on the man who hits hardest. Lewis via close-contact knockout in the first two rounds is the call.

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