UFC Fight Night 126 Preview: ‘Cowboy vs. Medeiros’

Welterweight

Thiago Alves (22-11) vs. Curtis Millender (14-3)

ODDS: Alves (-165), Millender (+145)

ANALYSIS: Wait, Alves still fights?
BR> I have gone into this mode what seems like repeatedly while doing these previews over the last few months, but this is yet another contest where we are simply dealing with the question of how particularly faded an elite fighter is heading into it. Alves has not changed his game in any way; he still resembles the same fighter who set the MMA world on fire in 2008. He is simply a decade older and dealing with accompanying wear and tear, albeit to a much higher degree than most, as Alves has had health setback after setback to a nearly comedic degree over the last eight years.

Millender is a long, dexterous welterweight. At 6-foot-2, he will enjoy eight inches of reach over the compact “Pitbull.” His game is built around kicking. Millender is not much of a lateral mover, choosing instead to just slide forward on his lead foot, flicking punches as a smoke show to set up his kicking game. If you simply looked at the Californian’s record, you would see two consecutive head-kick knockouts, and it is not incorrect to read that as an indicator of what his game is actually like. The “Curtious” one really does base his entire game around these strikes. He is not a puncher. He does not use footwork to cut the cage off from his opponents. He just uses forward pressure and his enormous frame to set a range and distance from which he can kick his opponents to death while looking to set up right roundhouse kicks to the skull.

This plays nicely for Alves. Again, the 34-year-old Brazilian is at a physical disadvantage in this sense, but because of his squat and muscular size for 170 pounds, Alves’ entire career has been predicated on getting inside of this kind of range and chopping away at his opponents. Millender is heavy on the front foot without much movement, making him susceptible to Alves’ famous low kicks, which are still a serious weapon; never mind if Alves gets inside with his hook-heavy combinations, as Millender is not skilled on the counter or in heated exchanges. This is a fight based entirely on distance and scheming, but Alves still has the stronger, fundamental weapons to score on a minute-by-minute basis, and the man is still tougher than shoe leather, having only been stopped twice in his 17-year career -- and one of those was on account of the doctor in his meeting with Carlos Condit in May 2015. Alves controls distance well enough to chop away at Millender’s lead leg, avoids the right head kick and steps inside on punching combos appropriately enough to take a competitive 15-minute decision.

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