Preview: UFC 183 ‘Silva vs. Diaz’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Tyron Woodley (14-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (10-0, 5-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The UFC’s newest phenom, “The Ultimate Fighter 17” winner Gastelum, makes what might be his final stop on the way to a title shot, as he meets American Top Team product and credentialed wrestler Woodley. A native of Ferguson, Mo., Woodley was a two-time NCAA All-American at the University of Missouri and got himself back on track after a lackluster loss to Rory MacDonald by viciously knocking out Dong Hyun Kim in August. Gastelum has won all five of his UFC bouts, most recently submitting Jake Ellenberger in the first round in November.

Gastelum’s game is built around his extraordinary physical gifts, which include great speed and natural power. He is essentially a pressure or aggressive counter fighter with a basic but effective approach. His bread and butter consists of pushing forward to the edge of the pocket behind a crisp southpaw jab and the occasional kick that he uses to draw out a reaction from his opponent. Once he commits, Gastelum responds either by hopping backward and then dropping a potent straight left-right hook combination or ducking under for a reactive takedown. His explosiveness gives him tremendous drive to get onto his opponent’s hips when he shoots, and he finishes with authority. Guard passing is not really his thing, but he can drop bombs from top position and he really excels in the scrambles. The front headlock is a specialty, and his move to the back from that position is one of the quickest in the sport.

Woodley, a tremendously gifted athlete with great explosiveness and astounding power, has a distinct tendency to fight hot and cold. At his best, he tempers his headlong rushes and vicious right hand with a crisp, well-timed jab, potent low kicks and solid three- or four-punch combinations. At his worst, he backs himself to the fence and wings overhands that have little hope of landing. In the clinch, Woodley is consistently strong, with a nice repertoire of knees, strong posture and the occasional elbow. His wrestling base and ridiculous strength make him nearly impossible to take down, and offensively, he switches nicely between a powerful, driving double-leg and a single on which he runs the pipe well. His top control is suffocating, if not terribly damaging. Cardio has been a problem for Woodley: If not in control, he suffers from a distinct tendency to burn through his reserves no later than the second round.

BETTING ODDS: Gastelum (-140), Woodley (+120)

THE PICK: This is a close fight, and the odds seem approximately correct. Gastelum is quite sound defensively for such a young and inexperienced fighter, but he still has a tendency to eat a flush shot or two; and that is all it takes for Woodley to put someone to sleep. Woodley also has advantages in the clinch and in the technical depth of his wrestling game. On the other hand, Gastelum is improving dramatically from fight to fight and is a solid wrestler and scrambler in his own right, while his tendency toward pressuring his opponent hits Woodley exactly where he is weakest. I think Gastelum will push Woodley back toward the fence, crack him with counter combinations and put together a clean, mature performance. Gastelum by decision is the pick.

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