UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship
Cris Cyborg (20-1) vs. Amanda Nunes (16-4)ODDS: Justino (-250), Nunes (+230)
It has been an odd UFC run for Justino, but then again, she is a unique figure in the sport, so it only seems appropriate. As Ronda Rousey lorded over women’s MMA, a fight against “Cyborg” was always the white whale, as it was obviously the biggest fight on the table but never came together due to a number of issues. Chief among them was Rousey’s insistence that “Cyborg” meet her down at 135 pounds, stemming from the Brazilian’s past drug test failures and the belief that she could make it to bantamweight once she was off the gear.
The UFC went out of its way to sign “Cyborg” and planted her in Invicta Fighting Championships as a way to keep her from heading elsewhere, but things went around in circles for a bit before Holly Holm effectively knocked Rousey out of the sport. Free of the specter of a Rousey-Justino showdown, the UFC finally brought “Cyborg” onto the roster and into the fold. The situation did not get any easier: The UFC insisted on extracting its five pounds of flesh, forcing “Cyborg” to cut to 140 pounds for no particular reason. Once the UFC decided to establish a women’s 145-pound division specifically for her, Justino was unavailable for the inaugural title fight. Still, “Cyborg” eventually found her way to the top of the one-woman division, and while she has been fighting inflated bantamweights, there is still the occasional interesting matchup. Holm did a solid job of surviving for five rounds, and then there is this superfight against Nunes, a fellow powerhouse and the current bantamweight champion.
Nunes should be a bigger deal, if only because of conventional wisdom. Holm made herself a mainstream name by knocking out Rousey, but Nunes did the same in even more efficient fashion and did not see her Q rating rise much, if at all. Frankly, her reign as a champion has been a bit disappointing inside the cage, as well, at least from an excitement standpoint. Nunes made her name as a berserker, racking up early wins and late losses thanks to her willingness to pour out her gas tank hunting for a finish. However, in her last few fights, Nunes has been overly cautious. Her rematch against Valentina Shevchenko was a particularly bad example of the Brazilian’s inactivity in the name of staying fresh, and her extended beatdown of Raquel Pennington probably could have been over a lot quicker. In a macro sense, some of this is nitpicking, as she remains the clear queen of the women’s bantamweight division at the moment. The lack of challengers for both women makes this the perfect time for her to challenge “Cyborg.”
Like Alexander Gustafsson in the main event, Nunes looks to be the last legitimate test left on the horizon for a dominant fighter, but she will probably fall short here. The most interesting thing is that there is not much of a physical difference between the two women. While “Cyborg” is seen as a frightening monolith in a way Nunes does not, they are both relatively the same size, which should nullify a lot of the strength advantage Justino typically enjoys over her opponents. However, if her recent fights have shown anything, it is that “Cyborg” has become a much more technical and strategic fighter than she was for most of her career, when she could afford to get wild and overwhelm her opponents. Not that she still cannot do that most of the time, but performances against Holm and Tonya Evinger have seen “Cyborg” stay comfortable and wait for her opportunities to counter, letting the finish happen rather than trying to chase the knockout.
While Nunes has focused a lot more on being more structured and patient, that next phase of her style development has not quite clicked the way Justino’s has. Nunes’ best chance may be to rush in, try to score a finish and hope for the best, particularly if she can get in one a quick takedown. However, given how Nunes has approached her last few fights, this will probably be a slow kickboxing match in which “Cyborg” has a much better idea of how to win rounds and score effective offense. The pick is “Cyborg” via decision.
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