Preview: UFC Fight Night 128 ‘Barboza vs. Lee’

Featherweights Frankie Edgar vs. Cub Swanson
Odds: Edgar (-230), Swanson (+190)

As I mentioned off the top, the primary talking point of this bout is the fact that Edgar is turning right around after being finished by the first time in his career. Seven weeks have transpired since Brian Ortega hit the elbow and uppercut that sent “The Answer” into the ether. That is barely enough time to let his 36-year-old and well-worn noggin rest, much less have even an abridged training camp for another dangerous striker. But the Toms River native has always defied expectations. This man defeated all-time great BJ Penn for the title as a puny lightweight, came back from not one but two hellacious first-round bludgeonings at the hands of Gray Maynard, and cut a swath through a second elite division to solidify himself as a future Hall of Famer. But Father Time loses to no man, and Edgar is hastening their meeting with this type of decision.

We know the book on the Mark Henry disciple by now. Edgar’s once frenetic but largely wasteful movement has given way to tighter, more economical footwork and more purposeful offense. This helps conserve his legendary gas tank, which isn’t as bottomless as it once was. Still, when he fires, he does so in combination, targeting the head, body, and legs with equal prejudice. His feints and fakes set up his hands and his takedown entries, disguising one as the other, making both more effective. The Ricardo Almeida black belt is a nightmare on top, keeping up the relentless pace that is his calling card while adding destructive ground-and-pound. This last phase is what eventually broke Swanson in their first meeting. After a competitive few minutes kickboxing, Edgar caught a kick and forced the fight to the floor. He methodically ground Swanson into dust over the next four rounds before a mercy-kill submission in the fifth.

In the interim, Swanson has reinvented himself yet again. No longer does he chase the knockout with reckless abandon. The Jackson-Wink product is more elusive than aggressive, pot-shotting while searching for openings to flurry with dynamic punch-kick combinations. His more veteran strategy extends to the mat as well, where he once would have been content to play guard. Now Swanson is trying to scramble back up as quickly as possible, preferably before his adversary can consolidate top position.

I can’t shake the feeling that this is a terrible idea for Edgar. Then again, Swanson has been notoriously inconsistent over his career, following one scintillating performance with a flat, uninspired one. If this were another five-rounder, I would trust Swanson to chin-check Edgar badly enough or often enough to get the job done. In a three-rounder, Edgar only needs to bank two frames and survive. I’ll be watching through my fingers, hoping that one of the most durable fighters of his generation isn’t doing himself irreparable damage. “The Answer” escapes with a decision.

Continue Reading » Sherman vs. Willis