UFC 125 Preview: The Main Card

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Middleweights
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann

The Matchup: This fight is Leben’s to lose, which is exactly why Stann can win it. The former WEC light heavyweight champion has steadily improved with a drop down to 185 pounds. Leben does not shoot for takedowns, Stann’s biggest weakness, meaning the two are almost certain to engage in a stand-up fight.

In this matchup, there are no mysteries with Leben. He wades forward, pushes out a setup kick or jab and hopes to line up opponents with his punishing left hand. Leben’s stand-up has progressed in recent years, as he has become less of the one-trick pony he was on Season 1 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” His submission game remains vastly underrated. Leben is also experienced and durable in bad spots and does not lose his head. Because of that, Stann probably will not look to take him down unless he has to, and he will likely have problems doing it. Leben is too crafty in the clinch and off his back.

Stann has decent power in his hands, and the drop to 185 serves him well. Overpowered by far more experienced wrestlers in Phil Davis and Krzysztof Soszynski, reports are that he has closed some holes in his game. And with Leben coming in red-hot off his wins over Aaron Simpson and Yoshihiro Akiyama, Stann has an opportunity to pull off an upset; he is just shy of 2-1 with the oddsmakers.

Look for Leben to get the edge early, pushing forward and banging around his foe. From there, it should turn into a war, with Stann rallying and Leben getting roughed up in return.

The Pick: I see this one going the distance, with both men in dire trouble at some point. Expect Leben to pull off a very close decision, but Stann is a live underdog. Given Leben’s personal problems of late -- he has a pending alleged DUI case -- Stann has a legitimate chance to get the most significant win of his career here.

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