WEC 46 Preview

Urijah Faber vs. Raphael Assuncao

The Breakdown: In a match that is likely to decide who gets the next crack at Brazilian brain-bomber and WEC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, the criminally underappreciated Assuncao takes on former champion and promotional poster-boy Faber. At first glance the fight would appear to be a simplistic clash between Assuncao’s jiu-jitsu and Faber’s ground-and-pound, but striking may be what decides this fight.

Despite being best known for his polished grappling game, Assuncao has shown significantly improved striking throughout his WEC run and it’s no secret that Faber won’t hesitate to show off his arsenal of moves straight out of “The Matrix.” Considering Assuncao would be hard-pressed trying to take down Faber and keep him there, he may find himself forced to use more of his striking than he’s prepared to.

Pulling guard is always an option. Assuncao certainly doesn’t need the top position to tap out anyone, but working off your back against Faber is a fine line since he only needs a sliver of opportunity to unload a ground-and-pound barrage that could overwhelm a wildebeest. This fight is certainly winnable for Assuncao, as Faber has gotten in trouble with slick grapplers before and his undersized frame is becoming a liability. By the same token, Assuncao will need to stay virtually mistake-free or find out why a bundle of fast-twitch muscle fibers can be the ultimate difference-maker.

The X-Factor: Fighting at featherweight is a double-edged sword for Faber. His speed allows him to fight like an anthropomorphized mongoose, but his lack of bulk makes it easier than you’d expect to physically overwhelm him. Assuncao’s wrestling is serviceable and he is a ginormous featherweight, which more than makes up for the disparity in wrestling skill. If Faber ends up working off his back, this fight turns into a completely different animal.

The Bottom Line: This will be a wildly competitive fight, as Faber’s manic pace will force Assuncao out of his more methodical comfort zone. The difference maker will be Faber’s speed and versatility on the feet as well as his complete unpredictability, which will throw Assuncao off just enough to make him tentative. Letting Faber set the pace is always a mistake, and it will be one Assuncao pays for in the form of a unanimous decision loss.