The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Preview

Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson

The hype train on Simpson hit its first inevitable snag in his come-from-behind split decision over Tom Lawlor. With fresh doubts swirling around the collegiate wrestling convert and an increasingly competitive middleweight division forming, this bout with Leben could decide whether Simpson joins him as a gatekeeper or takes a step toward title contention.

A tight defensive stance and superior hand-speed were the causes of Simpson’s struggles with Lawlor. Leben offers neither. Leben’s recent attempts at retooling his style have created a sort of identity crisis, as he switches between ground-and-pound tactics and his old-school mad bomber mentality. He’ll likely have to rely on the former since he won’t be scoring any takedowns on Simpson.

The opposite doesn’t hold true, however. “A-Train” is a freakishly powerful middleweight with legit wrestling chops to back it up. While Leben has made serious improvements in his guard work, he didn’t do well against Jake Rosholt’s top-control game and Simpson presents a far greater threat than him. Besides having more explosive ground striking, he also has a better base and doesn’t make the grappling mistakes that have plagued Rosholt’s career.

That means all of Leben’s hopes rest on his fists, and that isn’t going to cut it. While Leben has shown many times over that he has the power to put anyone down, he needs space to get his punches off. Simpson isn’t the type to stand at range, as he does his best work on the inside, delivering power shots of both the punching and wrestling variety. Without a proper jab or the hand-speed to keep Simpson at bay, Leben is going to have precious few opportunities to get any offense going.

It wouldn’t be the first time “The Crippler” cashed in on a minute window of opportunity. Past bouts with Terry Martin and Benji Radach are a testament to his durability and penchant for the dramatic. However, a wall-to-wall beating from Simpson isn’t the sort of thing anyone has been able to come back from thus far. No one should be surprised if Leben makes it to the last bell, but that will only mean Simpson had to work that much harder to get his hand raised.