John
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Welterweights
Vicente Luque (17-7-1, -275) vs. Niko Price (14-3, +235): Luque back in 2017 was coming off of a loss and stepped in on late notice to face Price. It was a fun fight that ended in a second-round victory for Luque and marked the beginning of a six-fight winning streak that saw “The Silent Assassin” break out as one of the UFC’s most reliably exciting fighters. After engaging in two of the best fights of 2019 with Bryan Barberena and Mike Perry, Luque had another corker against Stephen Thompson in November but wound up suffering his first loss in two and a half years. Naturally, Luque is doing exactly what he did last time: stepping in on late notice to face Price. The latter has earned his own action fighter credentials in the two-plus years since his loss to Luque. There is not much of a process to Price’s approach, but “The Hybrid” is a ridiculously dangerous finisher blessed with immense natural power. His knockout of Randy Brown via hammerfists from the bottom position remains one of the most bizarrely impressive finishes in the UFC’s history. This should be a lot like their first fight, which was fun but handily in Luque’s favor. The Brazilian’s constant pressure managed to keep Price on the retreat. Whenever Price chose to wing one of his power shots, Luque was able to dodge and counter until he found a club-and-sub finish. That dynamic has not changed much, though Price should still provide enough peril throughout that one misstep from Luque could be enough to end the fight. The pick is Luque via third-round stoppage.
John
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Featherweights
Bryce Mitchell (12-0, -160) vs. Charles Rosa (12-3, +140): This should be an entertaining mess. Mitchell is one of the featherweight division’s more exciting prospects, and though “Thug Nasty” admittedly does not come in with much of a game plan, the Arkansas native’s commitment to constant activity—particularly with an aggressive submission game—has been enough to win rounds and fans in his three UFC bouts. In his last fight, things came together for Mitchell in impressive fashion, as he scored only the second twister submission in UFC history against Matt Sayles. Mitchell looks to keep his momentum going against Boston’s Rosa, who returned from a 30-month layoff with a stunning submission win over Manny Bermudez in October. Rosa does not have nearly the hype that Mitchell does, owing in part to a middling UFC record to date, but the Bostonian is a similar fighter, complementing a volume-heavy and unorthodox striking game with aggressive and sneakily effective grappling. This is basically a coinflip, as both men are going to do whatever comes to mind in the moment until somebody gets caught or the horn sounds. However, Mitchell is a bit more aggressive and has the stronger resume. The pick is Mitchell via decision.
John
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Light Heavyweights
Ryan Spann (-410) vs. Sam Alvey (33-13, +330): It is a bit of a cruel joke that after such a long layoff, the UFC’s return will start with an Alvey fight. Beyond his “Smilin’ Sam” persona, which is divisive in its entertainment value, Alvey’s fights are often uneventful due to his impressive commitment to inaction. Throughout his career, Alvey has been more than willing to do nothing for minutes at a time until he spots his opening to uncork a gigantic knockout punch. While that has worked well for years, the approach does seem to be reaching the point of diminishing returns. A late-career move to light heavyweight has seemed particularly ill-advised. Even against non-athletes in an athletic division, Alvey’s unwillingness to pull the trigger has just gotten him clocked by stronger opponents, and his sturdy chin has started to crack. That does not bode well against Spann, who has been quietly working his way up the 205-pound ladder. Spann’s approach is not particularly deep, but he has shown skill everywhere, and unlike a lot of his light heavyweight peers, there are no obvious weaknesses that should hold him back against better competition. Spann can crack, so he should be able to hurt Alvey within the first few exchanges of the fight and put this away in fairly short order. The pick is Spann via first-round knockout.Related Articles
