Preview: UFC Mexico Prelims

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At first glance, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s latest trip to Mexico is a middling offering at best, but for those willing to take a deeper look, there might be some gold in those hills.

UFC Fight Night 268, which takes place Saturday at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, is the least of the UFC’s offerings in that country in recent years. The six-fight main draw is built to please the Chilango faithful, with Mexican fighters squaring off against foreigners in every bout—and heavily favored in all of them—but there is a sneaky amount of divisional relevance in the prelims, as the winner of the women’s bantamweight clash between Macy Chiasson and Ailin Perez might actually be closer to a title shot than anyone else on the card. Outside of that contenders’ matchup, the undercard is a mixed bag, heavy on the Dana White's Contender Series alumni (10 out of 14 fighters on the prelims came to the UFC through the show) and featuring multiple fighters returning from long layoffs due to injury or suspension. Here is the preview for the seven-fight preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 268, also known as UFC Mexico:

Middleweights

Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Medina

BETTING ODDS: Gandra (-550); Medina (+450)

Gandra (8-1; 0-0 UFC) and Medina (11-6; 0-3 UFC) are both looking for their first UFC win in the top prelim; the difference is that this is Gandra’s first chance and probably Medina’s last. Gandra’s game is about as subtle as a sledgehammer and, at least thus far, about as effective. His performance on the Contender Series last season, in which the 30-year-old Brazilian buried Trent Miller in under three minutes, is a representative example. “Problema” marched forward with purpose, swinging heavy shots with both hands, and put Miller on his heels almost immediately. Once he had his man stung and reeling, he poured it on, adding some hard kicks, keeping up the pressure and closing out the fight before it ever really got started. A look at his regional tape reveals the consistency of that approach: Gandra has thrived thus far on being the more active, more aggressive, harder-hitting fighter, preferring to keep things standing until or unless his opponent forces the issue. Aside from a misstep in his second professional fight, the approach has served him well and should continue to do so until he runs into a fighter with much better footwork than himself and/or one with the requisite wrestling chops to put him on his back without eating haymakers first.

That leads us to Medina. It feels unkind to say, but “Chicho” might be the worst fighter in the UFC relative to the division in which he competes, and I say that in the midst of previewing a card that also includes Kris Moutinho. Taking into account his loss on the Contender Series, after which he was signed anyway, the 34-year-old Bolivian by way of Mexico is 0-4 in Octagon-shaped fight enclosures. Beyond the raw numbers, Medina is regressing even by the eyeball test; on DWCS and in his first couple of UFC assignments, he presented as a tough, high-volume brawler who might never be a contender, but could eke out wins against a UFC middleweight or two. In his last two fights, however, Medina’s volume has dried up, leaving a lumbering, slow-footed puncher with decent but not great power and serious defensive flaws. It is difficult to picture a plausible route to victory for him against any UFC 185-pounder that doesn’t involve his opponent making a major mistake.

That spells bad news in this matchup, as even the best version of Medina was more or less tailor-made for a fighter like Gandra, who favors the same kind of offense-first brawl but is quicker and harder-hitting. Medina remains fairly durable—though that has waned in the last year as well—and is likely to hang in there for a while, but expect Gandra to win almost every exchange and the damage to pile up quickly. Gandra by Round 2 TKO.



Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz