The Ultimate Fighting Championship takes its road show to the Lone Star State this Saturday at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. Three of the promotion’s next four fight cards air on ESPN flagship airwaves, with a pay-per-view in the middle. While the organization often dumps off a half-hearted event after a blockbuster show, this one brings several familiar names and a slew of solid matchups that present decent lines from top to bottom. With only one betting favorite above -300 currently, the UFC on ESPN 37 edition of Prime Picks provides options for everyone, with preferred plays in the main and co-main events based on time elapsed, an extremely favorable pairing on paper and a significant underdog who should be much closer to a pick’em.
Calvin Kattar-Josh Emmett Goes to Decision (-125)
With Kattar clocking in as a rightful favorite anywhere from -225 to -250 depending on the book being observed, it stands to reason that a method of victory could be sought after. In many circumstances, picking that winner by finish or on the scorecards makes perfect sense to maximize value. For high-stakes matches with a great deal on the line, two competitors either on winning streaks or coming off career-defining performances, a different play might make more sense. Kattar will come into this main event with actual five-round experience; Emmett has fought beyond the third round only once, and it ended less than 30 seconds into Round 5 after an illegal knee from the Californian stopped the action with a bit of controversy. With a few questions looming about both fighters, the line on the fight going the full distance appears more appetizing than hoping a called shot hits.
Kattar will be squaring off against one of the hardest pure punchers he has encountered in quite some time, with Emmett all but abandoning the NAIA-level wrestling credentials some came to expect out of him from past matches against the likes of Scott Holtzman. It may be an oversimplification to pigeonhole Emmett into the category of “wrestler who fell in love with a big right hand,” a la Johny Hendricks, but it is not far from the finish line. To wit, Emmett has recorded at least one knockdown in his last seven outings, while absorbing just one in return. The likelihood of this pairing hitting the mat seems very low, which means Emmett will have to maintain his gas tank while avoiding strikes across the whole 25-minute journey. Kattar has not yet been knocked down since joining the UFC in 2017.
For this play to hit, it would mean predicting against the nickname of “The Boston Finisher,” who has earned 57% of his career triumphs by stoppage. It is not simply a tale of a fighter coming through the ranks on the regional circuit, crushing everyone and the quicker wins drying up when he arrives on the major stage. Beyond driving his elbows practically through Jeremy Stephens, he has also knocked out respectable names like Shane Burgos and Ricardo Lamas. On the other hand, Emmett has only lost one time inside the distance—against the aforementioned Stephens. Kattar rarely approaches his matchups with a poor gameplan, and he can rely on a slight reach advantage to pierce the guard of his smooth-shaved opponent with jab after unanswered jab. The volume being in Kattar’s favor, especially when it comes to long series of jabs, will prolong the match while not ever looking like the fight will need to stop. The later rounds may be a struggle for Emmett, as Kattar’s volume actually improves in the so-called championship rounds, but it could be possible for the underdog’s stunning power to get Kattar’s respect early and often, thereby pocketing rounds as he goes along.
Donald Cerrone-Joe Lauzon Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
This prognostication initially came forth ahead of UFC 274 in May, and the match was ultimately scratched on fight night due to a reported case of food poisoning for Cerrone. A month later, all things else in this pairing should be equal—even this specific over line is exactly the same as it was before, and so the remainder of this pick will simply be re-suggested, as nothing else has changed. Fight fans often lament a clash of all-action legends that comes too late, especially when both grow to become elder statesmen in their division before they come together. The concerns of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell meeting a few years too late or the clash of Carlos Condit and Matt Brown similarly needing to happen earlier are well-founded but sometimes mistaken. In those examples, the gentlemen matched with similar age and experience throw down, and while it might not be a prime version of the fighters in question, glimpses of greatness often come out. This will hold true between Cerrone and Lauzon in a matchup that might otherwise be shocking for two fighters who have already appeared a combined 64 times in the Octagon. There is no doubt they have both lost a step—at ages 39 and 38—which leads to the play of this fight lasting more than 7:30 being a reasonable one.
It is possible that these lightweights come out with guns blazing in an effort to record one final dramatic victory as fast as they can before their cardio abandons ship. The durability of both “Cowboy” and “J-Lau” has waned to a considerable degree; a shoulder strike from Conor McGregor rocked Cerrone, and an uppercut from Clay Guida knocked Lauzon off his feet. The oft-said phrase is that “the last thing to go is the power,” and that could ring true in this one after the first exchange sees someone rattled. Knowing that this could very well be the end, the approaches of the skidding Cerrone and returning Lauzon might be tentative, waiting to find their openings as they are fully aware of their own vulnerabilities. The men with the most (Cerrone, 18) and third-most (Lauzon, 15) post-fight bonuses in UFC history can still deliver a memorable battle, but it should be one that goes beyond the midpoint of the second round.
Kevin Holland Win Inside Distance (+135)
Since Holland moved back down to 170 pounds at the beginning of 2022, the UFC matchmaking team has established a clear path for the former surging middleweight contender. Instead of throwing him to the Derek Brunsons and Marvin Vettoris of the division at welterweight, the organization is setting him in the oft-discussed “action fighter” range in the weight category. Alex Oliveira and current opponent Tim Means regularly find themselves in thrilling matchups but far away from title contention as they are called upon to deliver violence at any given night. While Holland struggled against “Cowboy” early on, his leg kicks added up fast and his strikes that followed put Oliveira away quickly in Round 2. Means may be no less shopworn than Oliveira, but at least he finds himself on a winning streak. The danger that Holland presents, however, is something that, at 38, he may not be able to handle like he could six years ago.
As one of the largest overall betting favorites on the card, the way to find value for “Trailblazer” is unquestionably through a narrower prop bet. An 82% finish rate is no accident, with five of his six last victories coming inside the distance, and Holland’s aggressiveness can lead to the kind of recklessness on which Means cannot capitalize. “The Dirty Bird” will never shy away from a brawl, and while he can sneak in a takedown or two, he does not have the nullifying grappling style that can shut Holland down. Look for these action-packed welterweights to meet in the middle and exchange, but Holland’s long reach and effective striking to all levels will put him over the edge. Unless Means checks multiple leg kicks, his right lead leg will get hammered into putty, thereby weakening a possible overhand left counter that otherwise would work well for him. Whether by strikes, a club-and-sub or by catching Means leaving his neck exposed on an ill-suited takedown, the plus money of Holland is optimal for him to get a finish sometime in this expected firefight.
Maria Oliveira (+220)
To recycle a line from the Sherdog preview shows, Gloria de Paula should not be a nearly 3-to-1 favorite (-260) against anyone in the UFC. Perhaps bettors see the fact that she has won a bout inside the Octagon. Against Diana Belbita in February, all three Sherdog scorers awarded the win to Belbita against de Paula. At the highest level, “Spider-Girl” has succumbed to the strikes of future top contender Marina Rodriguez in 2018 and fell victim to the grappling of Tabatha Ricci in her last time out. Neither of these skill sets—powerful, technical muay Thai or effective takedowns into long stretches of ground control—are clearly possessed by de Paula. It might not be the most confident of assertions, but this line likely should be a lot closer given the work both ladies have put forth thus far.
If de Paula excels in an area, it is that she has shown to be a serviceable kickboxer, although a lapse of judgment against Cheyanne Vlismas led to her getting punted in exactly 60 seconds. Oliveira, a Parana Vale Tudo product and regular training partner of Jessica Andrade, will carry some of that aggression and power-first attack into this bout, and she should have a size advantage as well as a few inches in reach. It might end up as a non-dangerous standup match that shows few signs of ending before the judges get involved, but it is one in which Oliveira should be able to stay competitive as rounds progress. Provided she can pocket two rounds and keep “Glorinha” fighting off her back foot, Oliveira with a flier may be worth a look.