Prime Picks: UFC on ABC 3 ‘Ortega vs. Rodriguez’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship kicks it up a notch when it shifts to the ABC airwaves for UFC on ABC 3 this Saturday on Long Island. With the highest betting favorite around -300 odds, parity is the name of the game for this show at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Prime Picks for this well-matched lineup feature the favored man in the offense-first headliner, a barnburner that should lean towards the local man, an ex-title challenger looking to stave off a former champion and a newcomer who has been a woman possessed at her new weight class.

Brian Ortega (-170)

With everything other than the immediate championship implications, the UFC matchmakers knew exactly what they were doing by matching Ortega against Yair Rodriguez. Neither man shies away from a fierce exchange, and both sport chins that hold up to ample punishment and cardio that allows them to succeed even in the later rounds. On the feet, this could be an absolutely ferocious contest where they battle it out to the bitter end. Rodriguez unquestionably holds the edge when the fighters are standing, with a speed matched by few at featherweight. Where Ortega’s greatest advantage lies happens to be Rodriguez’s greatest weakness and one that still showed gaps as recently as the last appearance for “El Pantera.” Once this fight inevitably hits the mat, it is Ortega by anything he wants.

Rodriguez found himself controlled for long stretches of the later rounds by Max Holloway, a fighter who landed nearly as many takedowns in their fight alone as he had over the rest of his UFC career combined. If Holloway had no issue grounding Rodriguez and keeping him there, Ortega can have a field day. Even if Rodriguez decides to switch things up and keep everyone guessing with an offensive guard while constantly searching for sweeps and reversals in submission setups, he will play firmly in the favor of Ortega. “T-City” has the innate ability to snatch subs practically out of thin air, even when down on the scorecards or fatigued. The first four UFC wins for the Californian came in Round 3, with knockouts and submissions alike, cementing the reality that he is not out of the fight until one puts him out.

It will be an uphill battle for Rodriguez to maintain enough space so that he can soar through the air with knees and kicks or spin like a top with his fists and elbows. Rodriguez will be slightly longer in the arms, but Ortega manages to fight long from both stances, giving most strikers fits as he closes the distance and utilizes head movement and footwork to stay just close enough to frustrate them. Remarkably, just two of Ortega’s UFC wins have come when he landed more significant strikes, as he is a rare breed who sometimes only needs one shot but does remain quite hittable. Whether by landing with impunity on a tiring Rodriguez or by snatching the neck with his patented guillotine choke, the avenues to victory are far greater for the two-time former title challenger. If looking to go bold on this pick, Ortega wins inside distance at +150 is not at all outside the realm of possibility.

Shane Burgos (-165)

A striker’s delight is sure to play out between a technical boxer in Burgos and high-flying Canadian Charles Jourdain in an easy “Fight of the Night” contender on paper. “Air” Jourdain keeps an exceptionally high pace and rarely slows down, even when throwing energy-inefficient flying and spinning moves that sometimes miss the mark by a matter of feet. The significant strike landed per minute average of 5.6 for Jourdain on its face looks mighty impressive, and it would be against other opponents. He takes on a man whose nickname in “Hurricane” fits him as well as “Air” does to the flying striker, and Burgos’ significant strike rate of an astronomical 7.95 per minute clocks in as the second-highest in the UFC today. Jourdain will be walking into a proverbial meat grinder of fists and feet—largely the former—any time he tries to engage, and Burgos’ forward-heavy approach can make a fighter who needs setup time like Jourdain struggle.

For all of his high-volumed striking accolades, Burgos pairs it with solid accuracy and good use of his range. With six inches in the arms in his favor, the New Yorker can work on the outside into close striking exchanges, setting things up from a distance and chaining combinations together that start when Jourdain cannot reach him with a counter. Both men celebrate chins almost comically hard in nature, and they are more than willing to get into a slugfest and take one to land one. This pairing should only hit the ground should one man get dropped, with takedowns and the ensuing grappling a likely non-factor. The final boost in favor of Burgos is that he is unbeaten in his home state of New York after six outings, and the home crowd cheering for him should energize him even further. If skittish on selecting the chin-reliant Burgos, the fight going over 2.5 rounds—therefore allowing a late finish from an accumulation of damage—is a smooth +100.

Lauren Murphy (+175)

In less than two weeks, Murphy will turn 39 years of age, but she has not slowed or diminished to any notable capacity as she approaches the golden years in the sport. One lone defeat stands opposite five victories, and that loss came in the fourth round to pound-for-pound talent Valentina Shevchenko as she closed as a monstrous +800 underdog. The two were once booked at UFC 276, but it was bumped two weeks due to a positive COVID-19 test for Murphy. Likely due to her affliction—and not the Clostridioides difficile infection that she claimed occurred during the Shevchenko fight—Murphy has slumped on the betting line to nearly a 2-to-1 underdog. Meeting Miesha Tate in Murphy’s own weight class is a tough ask for the fellow long-in-the-tooth Tate, and Murphy has value at high plus money.

This could turn into a battle of the takedown, where one woman looks to impose top position and get ground-and-pound going. When it comes to being the dominant woman on top, Murphy vastly prefers a position-first approach with striking later, while Tate would like nothing more than to snatch up an exposed limb or neck while on the mat. The women to beat Murphy in the UFC have practically all done so by outwrestling the former Alaskan, and “Cupcake” certainly has the chops to exploit that deficiency in defensive wrestling. Should it stay on the feet, Murphy has historically shown a greater volume than Tate, and it is anyone’s guess how Tate will perform in her first move down to 125 pounds. With the questions about Tate’s physical status leading up to the fight and the fact that this is on paper a surprisingly evenly matched tilt, Murphy’s underdog status puts her as one to watch.

Emily Ducote (-150)

The debut for Ducote may be a fortuitous one for her, as she meets ex-atomweight Jessica Penne in the first fight on the card. The former flyweight, who vied for the inaugural Bellator MMA 125-pound title, returned to strawweight in 2019 and looked nothing short of sensational. Eventually winning the Invicta Fighting Championships strap in that division, she went 4-1 in that company’s weight class—as she made weight while Janaisa Morandin did not—with the one defeat a razor-close split decision to Kanako Murata that could have easily gone her way. Moving down in weight, she has managed to keep the power while gaining speed, and this has made her a dangerous foe the last few years.

While Penne remains relevant even at the age of 39, she showed that her four-year layoff from 2017 to 2022 was not spent collecting dust. A tough fight with Lupita Godinez and a submission over Karolina Kowalkiewicz showed there is still life left in the former title challenger. Her style may not mesh well with Ducote’s hard-charging, powerful approach, as Penne would like nothing more than to slow the fight to a grinding halt and shut down anything Ducote can throw at her. Should this fight hit the ground, Penne will likely hold the upper hand, but age and activity firmly gives Ducote an advantage. Penne, who has never seemed to be a huge fan of being on the feet, will meet a woman in “Gordinha” who is going to hit her early and often. Barring a sneaky submission when the two are dry early—Penne by submission at +470 is a suitable alternate option if not choosing Ducote—this should be the debutant’s fight to lose.