UFC Fight Night 126 Preview: ‘Cowboy vs. Medeiros’
Trinaldo vs. Vick
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo (22-5) vs. James Vick (12-1)Advertisement
ANALYSIS: I may have trash talked this card off the bat in the opening segment, but this is a truly a well-made and fantastic lightweight fight. Trinaldo is 8-1 in his last nine Octagon appearances, his only loss coming to top contender Kevin Lee in a fight in which he won the first round. Meanwhile, Vick -- despite his troubling association with Team Lloyd Irvin -- has only lost once in his career, corralling an 8-1 record under UFC employ.
More than just a statistical matchup, this is a serious stylistic pairing. Trinaldo’s game is hard to get a beat on. Although his best skills are as a smothering, top-position grappler, the 39-year-old loves to stand and trade, working behind a southpaw double jab and an overhand left behind it. “Massaranduba” seldom employs a game plan that works to his best physical advantage, yet because he is such a hoss, he tends to make it work. The man is just a bull, pushing forward and doing whatever he wants in an attempt to force pressure on the opponent.
The long and stretch of this fight, pun partially intended, is entirely based on distance management. In his only career loss, a nasty knockout to Beneil Dariush in June 2016, Vick allowed a more skilled striker to come inside of his lengthy flailing and rock his world. Will Trinaldo be as committed? The Brazilian lacks the overall striking craft of Dariush, who used clever footwork to get inside of Vick’s enormous range and tag him. Trinaldo is not that sort of striker; he is not without fundamentals, but at a six-inch reach disadvantage, it simply does not line up well for the Brazilian. If “Massaranduba” works a wrestle-boxing game, he will be much better off. Even then, Vick has shown over his last few bouts that opponents seeking a desperate takedown are just that: desperate. In fact, Vick seems to prey on his opponents when they push for takedowns, somehow realizing that they are threatened by the fact that he is an enormous 6-foot-3 lightweight. He clinches, grapples, gets back to his feet and goes back to work. Trinaldo is at his best when his heavy punching sets up his takedowns and allows him to control the pace of the bouts. I do not think that is the case here.
This should be a back-and-forth bout in which either man could finish the other by various means. However, Vicks’s length, range and improved jab, when combined with Trinaldo’s general lack of strategy, should bode well for the Texan in terms of tagging him on the feet and scrambling up the fence from takedowns. This does not even mention Vick’s ability to transition to submissions after hurting an opponent. Trinaldo is a live dog -- and even as he approaches 40 years old, he will continue to be so -- but Vick’s physical advantages and recent stylistic improvements are enough for me to give “The Texecutioner” the competitive decision nod.
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