Preview: UFC Rio Prelims

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All things considered, the Ultimate Fighting Championship pulled together a decent card for this week’s festivities in Rio de Janeiro.

While the sport’s premier promotion can lay claim to the lion’s share of top global talent, the roster is being stretched to its limit by the ongoing world tour that will see the Octagon post up in five different countries—on four continents—in five weeks. Considering that two of those events are numbered pay-per-views, some of the cable cards were bound to get the shaft, and on paper at least, UFC Fight Night 261 got it the hardest. The strain shows itself most clearly on the seven-fight preliminaries, in which only four of the 14 fighters scheduled to compete are above .500 in the UFC.

That kind of statistical summation sells the undercard short, however. Channeling the classic Serenity Prayer, UFC matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard continue to optimize everything they can control during this grueling stretch, starting with geographically smart booking: UFC Rio features a pair of Brazilians in the curtain-jerker, followed by a Brazilian-versus-foreigner matchup in every other fight. With luck, that will lead to the kind of packed and rowdy arena that can turn big moments into unforgettable ones.

There are plenty of individual storylines to watch, as well. Even the two heavyweight bouts—normally the lowlight of a Fight Night undercard—should be compelling viewing, as Vitor Petrino and Valter Walker have far more going on than the average big man outside of the Top 10. Most interesting of all will be the Octagon debut of Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend and MMA neophyte Beatriz Mesquita, who surely hopes to follow the example of her countryman and fellow late bloomer Alex Pereira.

Here is the preview for the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 261, also known as UFC Rio:

Men’s Flyweights

Jafel Filho (16-4, 2-3 UFC) vs. Clayton Carpenter (8-1, 2-1 UFC)

Odds: Carpenter (-115); Filho (+100)

Two promising flyweights look to get back on track after losses—the first career setback for Carpenter—in this well-matched bout of Dana White's Contender Series Season 6 alumni.

The 32-year-old Filho in some ways feels like a throwback to old-school Nova Uniao; to the days before Jose Aldo and Marlon Sandro brought crushing knockout power to the legendary team, when it was best-known for producing fleets of slick grapplers in the lighter weight divisions. That is not to imply that “Pastor” is a poor striker. He is a rangy kickboxer who uses feints well, throws good volume and delivers underrated power, especially in his kicks to the legs and body. Filho is a bit heavy on the front foot and therefore vulnerable to low kicks himself, but his striking is generally quite effective, and in any event serves mostly as a setup for his ground game.

Filho’s offensive wrestling has improved substantially in the last few years. Where he once employed a very “BJJ guy” approach, diving headlong at his opponent’s legs and bailing or pulling guard at the first sign of a sprawl, he now has a good double-leg shot from the outside that he tries to chain into a single-leg or high-crotch. His best takedowns, however, still come from trips or throws in the clinch, where his height, strength and underrated athleticism help him find ways to bring his opponent down. Once there, he is one of the best grapplers in the division, with lightning-fast back takes and deadly attacks in transition, as he showed in nearly tapping out then-undefeated phenom Muhammad Mokaev.

Carpenter is three years younger than Filho, but the gap feels greater than that. Thanks to a relatively late start and light schedule, the MMA Lab export has fewer than half as many professional fights as the Brazilian and still comes across as very much a prospect. And a good one at that; Carpenter is the kind of athletic, well-rounded up-and-comer that always seems to bless the men’s flyweight division. He came up short in his UFC debut in January, but was competitive against an absolute killer in Tagir Ulanbekov, pointing the way towards big things in the future.

On the feet, he is a slick boxer with good head movement, who throws in combination while frequently switching stances. A bit like a mirror image of Filho in his approach, Carpenter is a very capable grappler but prefers to keep things standing whenever possible, using his footwork and strong defensive wrestling to sprawl and brawl his way to victory.

This is a close matchup on the betting books for good reason, as it figures to be very competitive. While both men should be comfortable anywhere the fight goes, the conventional wisdom suggests that Carpenter should enjoy a slight advantage on the feet, while Filho may enjoy a significant edge on the ground. That means that things should hinge on where the fight takes place. Despite the strides Filho has made as an offensive wrestler, the place and terms of engagement will likely be up to Carpenter, so the pick is for the American to pull out the decision win in a fun-fast-paced scrap.



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Filho vs. Carpenter
Petrino vs. Petersen
Mesquita vs. Alekseeva
Rocha vs. Nicoll
Walker vs. Usman
Polastri vs. Kowalkiewicz
Lacerda vs. Oliveira