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THE HURRICANE TOUCHES DOWN!! @IanHeinischMMA with a MAJOR performance #UFC250 pic.twitter.com/uqQIkSI1ns

— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) June 7, 2020

Middleweight

#9 | Kelvin Gastelum (15-6, 10-6 UFC) vs. #15 | Ian Heinisch (14-3, 3-2 UFC)

ODDS: Gastelum (-225), Heinisch (+185)

For all his success in the UFC thus far, it is easy to forget that Gastelum’s rise to top prospect essentially came out of nowhere. Season 17 of “The Ultimate Fighter” was all about the spectacular run of Uriah Hall, which made it a surprise when the unheralded Gastelum upset him in the season’s final. To its credit, the UFC realized that a top young talent had essentially fallen into its laps and pushed him accordingly, and Gastelum found himself as a welterweight contender within about two years. However, what could have been a big opportunity against Tyron Woodley to kick off 2015 went south in about every way possible. Gastelum botched his weight cut so badly that he was hospitalized, yet still made it to the cage for an understandably flat performance. Gastelum had some success in his next few fights, but the weight issues continued and eventually forced him into a full-time move up to middleweight. The UFC’s matchmaking made Gastelum’s run up the middleweight ladder a bit strange, as the promotion kept matching him against big-name veterans who were obviously past their prime. That led to some one-sided wins, but even then, Gastelum’s willingness to coast on his talent still did not make his efforts particularly clean. His split decision over Ronaldo Souza could have gone the other way, and Gastelum even dropped a main event fight to a sliding Chris Weidman. Gastelum did eventually make it to an interim title fight with Israel Adesanya, which resulted a back-and-forth war that was among his best performances and ranked as one of the year’s best fights. However, he has followed that up with two disappointing performances. He took a neutralizing and clinch-heavy approach against Darren Till that just did not get much of anything done, and an apparent moment of overconfidence against Jack Hermansson led him to getting caught with a sudden heel hook. Now riding three straight losses, Gastelum badly needs to turn things around here against Heinisch.

Heinisch became a middleweight contender in surprisingly short order, racking up wins over Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Jr. to kick off his UFC career. The Coloradan did so on the back of a deceptively simple approach, leaning on some power punches and his wrestling game. Owing to his days wrestling while imprisoned on the Canary Islands—it is but one part of a wild life’s journey for Heinisch—he is at his best as a counter wrestler. Once his opponent decides to pressure with takedowns, Heinisch is usually able to reverse the proceedings and find a way to impose his own offense. Heinisch’s success dried up as quickly as it came, however. Surprisingly measured performances from Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov laid bare that Heinisch does not have a lot of weapons at range or the ability to impose his type of fight. Heinisch’s lone fight of 2020 showed some promise, as he managed to take the initiative and knock out Gerald Meerschaert in just 74 seconds. After a few scrapped bouts, Heinisch returns for a shot at a breakthrough win.

If three losses in a row is enough for Gastelum to come in sharp and focused, he should take this one. Unless the Meerschaert win portended some particularly huge improvements from Heinisch, Gastelum has the talent to effectively outbox and outpace him while staying out of trouble. However, after every Gastelum loss, a look back at his resume brings more and more questions, as the last opponent that he beat in his athletic prime was Nicholas Musoke back in 2014. A lot of what Heinisch brings to the table could cause some issues for Gastelum’s default approach. Beyond Heinisch being a hard hitter, Gastelum’s typical leanings toward pressure play right into the close-range and scramble-heavy game at which Heinisch excels. This figures to be a messy fight where a lot of the result hinges on Gastelum’s dedication to a smart game plan. It is hard to favor that based on his last few fights, so the pick is Heinisch via decision.

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