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Men’s Flyweights

Alex Perez (25-9; 7-5 UFC) vs. Asu Almabayev (22-3; 5-1 UFC)

Odds: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)

After nearly a year and a half away from the cage, longtime contender Perez looks to turn things around and prove he is still a factor in the division against Almabayev, who will seek to continue climbing towards his own title shot.

Perez has been in the thick of things in the flyweight division for so long that it’s jarring to realize he’s still only 33 years old. Joining the UFC out of Dana White's Contender Series in 2017, he went 6-1 to open his UFC run, earning a well-deserved shot at the belt then held by Deiveson Figueiredo.

His first-round submission loss to “Deus da Guerra” marked the beginning of a sharp decline, in which Perez has gone 1-4. While the losses have all come against Top 5 fighters, Perez has also begun to show signs of physical decline. This will be just his fifth fight in five years since the Figueiredo bout, time during which the Californian has suffered three injury layoffs of a year or more, including a severe knee injury last June against Tatsuro Taira that has kept him on the shelf until now.

At his best, Perez is a huge, athletic flyweight with well-rounded offensive skills. He is a solid boxer with good power and good volume, though that seems to be waning, and some of the better, more underrated leg kicks in the division. His wrestling and grappling blend seamlessly into a very aggressive, scramble-oriented attack that is very typical of the flyweight division in the post-Demetrious Johnson era—much like fellow longtime contenders from Matt Schnell to Brandon Royval, he is offensively dangerous but gets himself into trouble with his reckless approach.

Almabayev is, by flyweight standards at least, a more measured, composed fighter. The stocky 31-year-old from Kazakhstan employs a classic, if Central Asia-flavored, wrestle-boxer approach. While he does throw out spinning strikes from time to time, most of his striking offense consists of low kicks and boxing combinations intended to raise his opponent’s guard, opening him up for takedowns. He has good entries, aided by persistence and his burly frame, and is relentless in working to pass guard or take his foe’s back, where he can employ his excellent chokes.

Three years ago, this fight would have felt like a pick ‘em, but it has been a long three years. At this point, Almabayev feels as though he is still on his way up, or at worst has plateaued, while Perez had the look of a fighter in physical decline even before the knee injury last summer. If he is fully recovered from that damage and is roughly the same fighter he was 18 months ago, this would be a fun, frantic and very evenly matched fight. However, the lean here is that Perez’s athleticism and durability will have waned even further, and the pick is Almabayev to pull away as the rounds wear on to earn a decision victory, though a late submission would not be shocking.



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