Men’s Flyweights
Lucas Rocha (17-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Stewart Nicoll (8-1, 0-1 UFC)This is where that throwaway statistic about 10 of the 14 fighters on the UFC Rio undercard being under .500 in the promotion proves deceptive, as Rocha and Nicoll are both promising flyweight prospects who just happened to run into far more experienced opposition in their UFC debuts and got themselves choked silly. That said, both men will have also been on the shelf for over a year since those losses, so there is plenty to prove on Saturday.
Rocha is barely 25 years old and already has nearly 20 career fights, mostly in smaller Brazilian promotions. He is a plus athlete and fights like it, with the freewheeling approach of a man who has simply outgunned most of his foes and will need to figure out how to deal with opponents who can match his physicality. On the feet, he likes to set up outside, then dart into range and explode with flurries of punches, where his hand speed and power serve him well. He is not much of a wrestler offensively or defensively, and in any case rarely initiates the ground game, but he loves to scramble and is dangerous in transition. Against Clayton Carpenter in his UFC debut last year, he blundered right into a back-take and ended up getting put to sleep, but with some experience and refinement, he should be able to avoid that kind of mistake in the future.
Nicoll is a few years older than Rocha—he turns 31 next month—but the explosive Aussie comes across as a work in progress as well, especially considering this will be only his 10th professional fight. He is a sharper boxer than Rocha in the technical sense, but without the natural power or wild abandon of the Brazilian, Nicoll’s striking is both lower risk and lower reward.
Where Nicoll figures to have the advantage, here as well as in many future bookings, is wrestling. He is already one of the better offensive wrestlers in the UFC from Oceania, with good double-leg shots from outside and an arsenal of body lock and trip takedowns from the clinch. Once he has his opponent down, he is deliberate but diligent, chipping away with short punches and elbows while looking to pass his opponent’s guard.
This fight is rightly close on the betting lines, and Rocha’s explosiveness and aggression will make it an edge-of-the-seat viewing experience, but the pick here is that Nicoll pulls off the mild upset by avoiding any truly game-changing haymakers from Rocha, taking him down in at least two of the three rounds, and doing enough damage there to earn a unanimous decision win.
Jump To »
Filho vs. Carpenter
Petrino vs. Petersen
Mesquita vs. Alekseeva
Rocha vs. Nicoll
Walker vs. Usman
Polastri vs. Kowalkiewicz
Lacerda vs. Oliveira