Preview: UFC Vancouver ‘de Ridder vs. Allen’

Lightweights

Kyle Nelson (16-6-1; 4-5-1 UFC) vs. Matt Frevola (11-5-1; 5-5-1 UFC)

Odds: Frevola (-115); Nelson (+100)

In the main card opener, “The Steamrolla” returns after more than a year on the shelf, looking to snap a two-fight skid and ruin Nelson’s foray into lightweight.

Frevola has been a blast since joining the UFC. He’s an aggressive striker who is capable of disciplined boxing—even if it’s visually awkward—but loves to brawl. He is also a very good offensive wrestler when he decides to turn it on. The fun seems to be winding down, however, as he has looked slower and more easily hurt in his last few outings, as well as spending more and more time on the shelf.

He is still a fairly athletic, compact lightweight with good natural power in his shots that he maximizes by, frankly, overswinging a lot of the time. While his offensive wrestling remains effective, especially when he times his entries for when his opponent expects him to strike, his defensive wrestling is not great and ground work in general seems to sap his endurance, which used to be top-shelf and may only be average now.

Nelson has been a consistent mid-card featherweight for the UFC for years now, but as a tall, big-framed 34-year-old, he appears to be conceding that his best future lies at 155 pounds. That may be a good move, as “The Monster” does not figure to give up size or reach to most lightweights—he will be quite a bit taller than Frevola, for starters—and considering that he was at clear speed deficit on the feet in all three of his most recent losses.

However, a move in weight probably will not change Nelson’s tendency to allow himself to be drawn into phone-booth slugfests with harder-hitting foes, and against Frevola, that’s going to be an issue. This fight has “first-round KO” written all over it; the question is who will be the one left standing. If Frevola is in serious decline, there is a very good chance Nelson catches him and starches him—or rocks him and then jumps on him and chokes him out, as he did several times in his pre-UFC career. However, the lean here is that Frevola has enough tread left on the tires to survive one more banger. The pick is Frevola by Round 1 knockout.



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de Ridder vs. Allen
Holland vs. Malott
Vera vs. Zahabi
Fiorot vs. Jasudavicius
Gibson vs. Aori
Nelson vs. Frevola
The Prelims