Opinion: UFC Predictions for 2026

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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A new year has arrived, and we all know what that means: a bevy of prediction pieces on a variety of subjects, from sports to politics and everything in between. I decided to get in on the act, and rather than dilly dally any longer, let me look into my crystal ball and dive into what I see in the days, weeks and months ahead.

The UFC’s most anticipated fight does not happen for the second year in a row.

Fans in 2025 expressed excitement at the possibility of Jon Jones defending his heavyweight title against Tom Aspinall. Jones closed out 2024 by putting away a past-his-sale-date Stipe Miocic, with Aspinall waiting in the wings as the interim champion. There wasn’t any way the fight wouldn’t happen, right? Wrong. Jones opted to retire rather than fight Aspinall, then immediately unretired after the UFC White House card was announced. Jones may be the Greatest of All-Time, but his disdain for fans is unmatched. The fight that fans want to see going into 2026 would pit Ilia Topuria against Islam Makhachev. Once again, it doesn’t look like it’s happening. Topuria has already announced he’s taking a leave of absence for personal reasons, and Makhachev seems happy to never cut down to 155 pounds again. I’m sure Topuria would be willing to go to 170 whenever he gets back to fighting, but that gives him a greater excuse should he lose. No, the fight would need to take place at a catchweight—I’m thinking 160 pounds—but it isn’t happening this year. The Ultimate Fighting Championship has had enough of divisions being held up, and the era of the double champions is over. Even if the promotion was willing to hold up two divisions for that fight, it won’t justify that being Topuria’s first fight back while he’s already on the sidelines.

Title changes will remain common, even if not at 2025’s pace.

I don’t think there will ever be a year in which there were as many title changes as there were in 2025, when championships changed hands a total of 12 times. The vacating of titles had a lot to do with that, as Jones, Makhachev, Topuria and Weili Zhang all voluntarily relinquished their thrones. Makhachev and Topuria succeeded in claiming gold at a higher weight class, while Zhang failed and left her immediate future up in the air. With that said, there were still eight title switches that happened within an unsuccessful defense. I don’t see any voluntary vacations in 2026, nor do I see anyone at risk of being stripped. An interim title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett has already been set at lightweight while Topuria is on ice, and Aspinall’s injury happened late enough in 2025 that I feel comfortable saying it won’t be until 2027 before there are any real discussions about stripping him. However, there are a lot of current champions at risk. Mackenzie Dern looks vulnerable should Zhang move back down to 115 pounds. Valentina Shevchenko looked awesome in her last appearance, but she will soon be 38 with a lot of miles on the combat sports odometer. Plus, her last appearance was against an undersized opponent. Alex Pereira and Alexander Volkanovski also have age questions. Aspinall may never be the same again. Makhachev and Topuria are on the smaller side, and that could be problematic in the right matchup. Joshua Van and Petr Yan both appear to be short-term champions. Kayla Harrison looks incredible at 135 pounds, but the weight cuts will take their toll and she’s facing a huge challenge in Amanda Nunes on Jan. 24. A reasonable guess for 2026: seven title changes.

The Paramount honeymoon will be short-lived.

I don’t say this because I want it to be short-lived. I don’t want that at all. I’m not a UFC hater, but everything that has occurred since David Ellison acquired Paramount and CBS indicates he’s very impulsive. The deal with the UFC happened shortly after Ellison came to power, and it’s hard to believe he wasn’t looking at the UFC deal through rose-colored glasses, ignoring the things that kept others such as ESPN or Netflix from pulling the trigger before he jumped into the negotiations. The cards that have been released thus far are less than ideal. UFC 324 doesn’t look bad, but UFC 325 looks underwhelming for a numbered event. There are already two UFC Apex cards scheduled in the first quarter, and those are notorious for the low quality they produce. Plus, if the White House show ends up being as loaded as many seem to believe, it means the cards surrounding that event will be on the weak end. While I don’t see six title fights on that card—UFC commentator Jon Anik recently indicated it was a possibility—even three championship bouts on a single card eats up the quality of surrounding shows. Throw in the questionable status surrounding the likes of Topuria and Aspinall—or the always questionable ability of Khamzat Chimaev to fight more than once a year—and I foresee a brief honeymoon with Paramount and the UFC.

Francis Ngannou will return to the UFC.

I know Ngannou is under contract with the Professional Fighters League, but he has already expressed interest in returning to the UFC and mentioned the White House card. I don’t know if he makes his return before then, but the big man only has so many more prime years left in his career—most of them have been spent in pursuit of boxing paychecks—and he’s no longer as relevant as he once was. He was nothing more than a curiosity to the boxing world when he challenged the best it had to offer, and those fans lost interest after he was blasted by Anthony Joshua. Ngannou has only fought in mixed martial arts once in the last four years, and that was against an opponent no one had any interest in him fighting. With no one else on the PFL roster intriguing fans to stand opposite Ngannou in a fight, he’s becoming irrelevant to those who don’t already give him a single thought. The best fighters have an ego, and I have no doubt Ngannou doesn’t appreciate going largely unnoticed. I know he doesn’t have a good relationship with UFC CEO Dana White. However, White is a businessman at heart, and he managed to work with Tito Ortiz despite their acrimonious relationship. For the right deal, Ngannou can come back—if the PFL is willing to let him go. It would be best for him, as it gives him a chance to become relevant again. It’s best for the UFC, as he injects positive interest in a heavyweight division that desperately needs it. It’s best for the PFL, as it could use some news as a fighter-friendly organization after several public-relations hits from former Bellator MMA competitors. Win, win, win.