The Bottom Line: Proceed with Caution

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It’s been a while since a prospect came along with as much buzz as Bo Nickal has just three fights into his professional career. Not only does the former Dan Hodge Trophy winner have the sort of impeccable wrestling credentials that have proven to the foundation of many a hall-of-fame MMA career, but he has adapted exceedingly well to his new sport. He showed brutal knockout power on his feet in his first bout and slick submissions in his next two. Adaptation is pivotal to thrive in MMA, and Nickal has demonstrated he has that ability.

Nickal’s admission into the Ultimate Fighting Championship felt inevitable even before his second Dana White’s Contender Series fight. Nobody gave opponent Donovan Beard much of a chance, and the betting odds were more akin to an undercard boxing match where a top prospect is paired with a hapless journeyman than what we’re accustomed to seeing from a fight promoted by the UFC. The belief among fight observers was that the UFC already had Nickal’s next steps planned.

After Nickal proceeded to run through Beard on Sept. 27, he spoke not like someone with a bright MMA future but someone who wants to be a star immediately. Part of that is surely to generate attention and enhance his marketability, but you don’t talk about fighting Khamzat Chimaev before your proper UFC debut if you’re not planning on making waves in a hurry. His first opponent, Jamie Pickett, is much more in line with what you would expect for an inexperienced competitor making his UFC debut, but if he wins impressively in that fight and maybe one more, the calls will come for him to show what he can do against high-end competition.

There are, of course, rich rewards to be gained if you establish yourself as a prodigy right out of the gate and fans are clamoring to see you fight every time out. However, there are also significant downsides to rushing a fighter’s development. Nickal was riding high a week ago, but by weekend’s end, there were a couple of reminders, if not cautionary tales, of why Nickal and his management might want to slow down a little bit and take their time in his MMA rise.

The UFC and Bellator MMA both ran cards on Saturday, and two of the most intriguing fights of the night involved fighters who entered MMA with sterling credentials from a different sport. In the case of Bellator, it was world-class freestyle wrestler Aaron Pico facing arguably the biggest challenge of his career in Jeremy Kennedy. In the UFC, it was jiu-jitsu world champion Mackenzie Dern main eventing for the second time against Xiaonan Yan.

Pico is probably the closest recent comp to Bo Nickal. When Pico made his MMA debut in Madison Square Garden in 2017, it generated so much attention that ESPN.com put it as the main story on its front page. It made sense for Bellator to build up his debut as much as possible in its quest to create young stars, but it ended up backfiring when Pico was rocked and submitted in less than 30 seconds by a much more experienced opponent.

Since then, Pico has showed strong natural skills for the sport: great takedowns, a dominant ground game and striking power. However, his push to fight tough opposition right from the beginning has resulted in a series of setbacks. His shoulder injury against Kennedy was more of an unfortunate fluke, but it was one he couldn’t really afford given that his career record now stands at an unimposing 10-4 and the buzz surrounding him has largely dissipated. There is certainly no guarantee things would have turned out differently if he had gone slower, but given his tools and his record, it’s easy to conclude Pico, his team and Bellator made the wrong play. That play is pretty much the exact same play Nickal wants to attempt now.

Dern didn’t go quite as fast as Pico, but she also has progressed quickly in the sport. She was already in the UFC after five pro fights, and she was promoted prominently every step of the way. While it’s hard to argue she was rushed, her overall MMA game has not progressed as far as needed to reach the top of her division. That was apparent in her close loss to Yan.

The strongest asset either fighter had in the UFC main event was clearly Dern’s jiu-jitsu. When Dern got Yan down, she dominated in the most one-sided action of the fight. Yan managed to survive without being submitted, but it was all Dern in the second and fifth rounds. The problem for Dern was that her wrestling wasn’t strong enough to get Yan down in the other rounds, and her striking wasn’t strong enough to steal one of the other frames. As a result, Dern lost the fight despite having by far the most effective moments.

Dern’s predicament demonstrates a fact that sometimes gets overlooked in MMA: It’s hard to develop all the necessary skills in the sport. They’re different skillsets, and being good at one doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at others. Dern has known for years she needs to improve her striking and wrestling in order to reach the top, and she just hasn’t been able to make it far enough. It takes time to develop those skills, and if you’re in a fight with a well-rounded, world-class opponent, your vulnerabilities will be exploited. Nickal is great in one area and has flashed potential in others, but those secondary skills will be seriously tested against ranked UFC opposition.

It’s hard to count out Nickal even if he ends up in the deep end early in his UFC career. He seems better suited to make the jump than just about anyone to come along in a long while. However, there were prominent examples the same week he officially earned his UFC contract of why patience is needed in MMA. He would be wise to take them into account before pushing too hard to be fighting the best of the best.