Preview: UFC on ESPN 44 ‘Holloway vs. Allen’

Lightweights

Rafa Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC)

ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Now 41 years old, Guida is still doing what he has always done. One of the most exciting fighters in the sport at his peak thanks to his inhuman levels of pace and durability, “The Carpenter” is now about a decade removed from his prime but still a much more reasonable facsimile of his old self than anyone would have figured. Guida has obviously slowed down, but he is still nearly impossible to knockout and remains a relentless wrestler. He will hit a wall against clearly stronger and younger athletes, but two of Guida’s last three fights have seen him stage a comeback win to choke out Leonardo Santos and outwork Scott Holtzman over three rounds. Amazingly, Guida clearly has another winnable fight here against a man over a decade younger in Mexico’s Garcia.

Garcia is a fairly meat-and-potatoes fighter who is a bit hard to pin down. When “Gifted” can establish a clear wrestling advantage, everything starts to click beautifully, but he has tended to get stalled out against stronger athletes. That would normally make for a simple read, but a 2021 loss to Chris Gruetzemacher still looms a bit large over Garcia’s fights. Based on the rest of his resume, that was the exact type of fight against a non-athlete where Garcia is built to excel, but he dropped a clear decision. That result raises the worry that Guida can gut out yet another unlikely win at this stage of his career, but Garcia does seem rock-solid enough to hang with the former Strikeforce champion every step of the way and hit him hard enough to make up for any perceived pace advantage. The pick is Garcia via decision.

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Holloway vs. Allen
Quarantillo vs. Barboza
Jacoby vs. Murzakanov
Cutelaba vs. Boser
Gutierrez vs. Munhoz
Garcia vs. Guida
The Prelims