Preview: UFC Rio ‘Oliveira vs. Gamrot’

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All things considered, the Ultimate Fighting Championship pulled together a decent card for this week’s festivities in Rio de Janeiro.

While the sport’s premier promotion can lay claim to the lion’s share of top global talent, the roster is being stretched to its limit by the ongoing world tour that will see the Octagon post up in five different countries—on four continents—in five weeks. Considering that two of those events are numbered pay-per-views, some of the cable cards were bound to get the shaft, and on paper at least, UFC Fight Night 261 got it the hardest. The strain shows most clearly on the prelims, where only four of the 14 fighters scheduled to compete are over .500 in the UFC, but the promotion was forced to scramble when two fighters, including main eventer Rafael Fiziev, dropped off the main card within the last three weeks.

Still, UFC matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard have made the best of a tough situation. The undercard, lousy as it may be on paper, features the debut of BJJ superstar Beatriz Mesquita as well as that rarest of occurrences: interesting bouts between unranked heavyweights. And best of all, in place of Fiziev, we get Mateusz Gamrot stepping up to face Charles Oliveira in what is easily the most compelling non-title main event in the UFC this year. Against all odds, this should be a fun one.

Let us move on to the preview for the main card of UFC Fight Night 261, also known as UFC Rio:

Lightweights

Charles Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC; 23-11, 1 NC UFC) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC; 8-3 UFC)

Odds: Gamrot (-120); Oliveira (+100)

Top lightweight contenders meet here in a fantastic tilt with possible title implications for the winner, as Gamrot steps up on two weeks’ notice to face former champ “do Bronx” in the most hostile setting imaginable.

Oliveira has been in the UFC for so long at this point that there is an entire generation of fans who have no direct memory of the kind of fighter he used to be. Consider that Oliveira’s career turning point, when he regrouped after a TKO loss to Paul Felder with 11 straight wins culminating in a year-long title reign, came nearly eight years ago. That’s before the debut of Dana White's (Tuesday Night) Contender Series. Prior to the Felder fight, Oliveira had been a mercurial also-ran: a submission wizard with severely underrated offensive striking, but plagued by defensive liabilities, chronic weight issues at 145 as well as 155 pounds, and worst of all, the reputation of being a frontrunner who buckled when things got tough.

What a difference since then, however. Without substantially changing his skill set—the most noticeable differences have been settling in at lightweight and improving his physical condition—Oliveira transformed himself from a fighter known for breaking under pressure to one who breaks other fighters. His last three wins before losing the belt to Islam Makhachev tell the story eloquently, as Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje all had success early, only for “do Bronx” to bite down on his mouthguard, come back and overwhelm them with offense. For those who remember the skinny Brazilian kid who got kneebarred by Jim Miller back in the day, or who tapped to a phantom injury against Max Holloway, it was one of the most stunning reinventions in MMA history.

Oliveira’s striking has always been overlooked and underrated to some extent; understandable, given his early-career penchant for ending up on opponents’ highlight reels, but even in his early 20s he was a good offensive kickboxer who used his lanky frame and natural speed to good effect. In his current incarnation, Oliveira is a muay thai woodchipper, working his opponent with long jabs and leg kicks at range, then switching seamlessly to nasty knees and elbows when his foe closes the distance. He is still hittable, as he tends to plant himself squarely in front of his opponent and enter and exit on straight lines, but his torrent of offense and his newfound durability have made it impossible for anyone other than Ilia Topuria to truly take advantage.

Oliveira is, of course, the most prolific submission artist in UFC history. He is a sublime grappler, capable of lightning-quick back takes, arm and neck attacks from any imaginable position, and though he does not employ them as often in recent years, some of the most dangerous leglocks in the game. As his wrestling and physical strength have improved, he has had more opportunity to show his vicious ground-and-pound, as well as topside submission attacks. Going to the ground with Oliveira has been a near guarantee of defeat even for some of the best fighters in the division.

For someone who came to the States as a former two-division champ in a major European organization and now finds himself zeroing in on a UFC title shot, Gamrot has flown a bit under the radar. (Substitute Cage Warriors for KSW and contrast Gamrot’s arc with that of someone like Conor McGregor.) Some of the reasons are down to his fighting style and personality, both of which are entertaining but not exactly “Notorious,” but much of it comes down to having lost his UFC debut to Guram Kutateladze. While that fight was competitive, the loss led to a “wait and see” approach to Gamrot’s UFC run.

Since then, the 34-year-old “Gamer” has won eight fights and lost only two, both of which were competitive and at least one of which could easily have gone the other way. He has accomplished this without changing his basic approach. On the feet, Gamrot is a rangy southpaw who throws good combinations, often switching stances mid-combo, with decent power. He can struggle when pressured by another long-limbed striker, as he did in his loss to Dan Hooker, but thus far few other fighters have managed to make him uncomfortable there.

Where Gamrot truly shines, however, is as a wrestler and grappler. He is one of the most technically skilled, relentless and versatile wrestlers in the division. While he is capable of a beautiful shot from outside, chaining double-legs into single-legs or hitting a slide-by, he excels at incorporating well-timed takedowns into striking exchanges, catching his opponents off guard.

Once on the ground, Gamrot is similarly versatile and relentless. He is adept at hitting a conventional takedown, setting up in his opponent's guard and going to work from top position, but he is at his best in freewheeling scrambles, where his athleticism, instincts and technique usually give him the advantage. When he is matched against a similarly talented ground fighter, the results can be pyrotechnic; his 2022 scrap with Arman Tsarukyan was 25 minutes of madness, one of the most entertaining UFC main events to feature so much grappling.

Gamrot’s game, on the feet as well as on the mat, involves a high pace and lots of offensive as well as defensive wrestling, and as such, relies on his superb conditioning. For that reason, as incredible as this matchup is, it is valid to wonder whether the short notice will make a difference. Gamrot has shown every sign of being a fighter who is built for five-round fights, where he has another 10 minutes to leave his foe in the dust. Will he be able to do that here, stepping up on two weeks’ notice against a fighter in Oliveira who has had this date circled on his calendar for months?

The lean here is that he will not. If these two were fighting in a neutral location—say, Las Vegas—on full camps, I might lean slightly towards Gamrot in a razor-close fight that resembled both men’s respective tilts with Tsarukyan. In this case, the time frame and setting will matter. Gamrot is too well conditioned for me to imagine him showing up noticeably out of shape (he is a renowned gym rat at American Top Team) but it is possible that he will pace himself slightly in order to avoid a late-round collapse. Add in the fact Gamrot will need to secure takedowns and work from top position in a Farmasi Arena that is likely to be screaming at the ref for a standup, and it is easy to picture close rounds breaking the Brazilian’s way. In a matchup this close, that may make all the difference, and the pick is for “do Bronx” to prevail by decision in an instant classic that leaves fans open to the idea of a rematch at some point down the road.



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Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Figueiredo vs. Jackson
Luque vs. Alvarez
Diniz vs. Pinto
Ramos vs. Ofli
Almeida vs. Aswell
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