Preview: UFC Rio ‘Oliveira vs. Gamrot’

Featherweights

Lucas Almeida (15-4; 2-3 UFC) vs. Michael Aswell (10-3; 0-1 UFC)

Odds: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)

The UFC Rio main card opener will see a pair of featherweights looking to bounce back from losses in their last outing, as Brazilian veteran Almeida faces off against Texas prospect Aswell.

Almeida has been a bit of a disappointment at this level; even after his loss on Dana White's Contender Series to Daniel Zellhuber, which has aged well, he seemed like a prospect with some upside in the UFC as a huge, athletic featherweight with a full suite of offensive weapons and a venomous finisher’s instinct.

That has not panned out; Almeida remains big for the division—too big, apparently, as he missed weight in his last outing against Danny Silva—but the athleticism and durability that characterized his career in Brazil have given way to stiffness and brittleness, respectively. The Silva fight was a close affair, but Almeida’s losses to Pat Sabatini and Andre Fili saw him be easily outwrestled in one case, and hurt badly enough by a single blow in the other that the finish was inevitable. He is still a fundamentally sound kickboxer with good combination punching and lateral movement, and he still has good power, but it is difficult to plot a path to victory for him against any foe who can rival his offensive output.

Aswell young—he turned 25 just weeks ago—but his potential has been obvious since his professional debut, which I happened to cover in person.

Since then, he has racked up a solid record, beating a who’s-who of solid Texas talent, while his only losses have come against current UFC competitors Yadier Del Valle, Bogdan Grad and Bolaji Oki. The most recent of those, against Oki in May, saw “The Texas Kid” step up on short notice, at lightweight, to face a big, young and very promising prospect in “The Zulu Warrior.” His credible performance in that decision loss only reinforced the idea that he had upside as a featherweight in the Octagon.

Having said that, in many ways Aswell still feels like an athlete in search of his true game. Aswell’s best regional performances saw him use his fast, powerful hands and combination punching to hurt, then overwhelm foes, but he is a good wrestler and grappler who could stand to use those tools more often. All three of his losses so far have been relatively competitive, but he had moments of success on the ground that were not pursued further, and might have provided paths to victory.

That is unlikely to be a problem here, as Almeida also greatly prefers to keep things on the feet. If either fighter initiates a takedown outside of a hurt or desperate attempt, I would be mildly surprised. Expect a willing scrap on the feet here, where both men get in their share of clean shots. That is where Aswell’s youth and durability are likely to come into play, as it’s difficult to imagine Almeida withstanding the punishment. The pick is for Aswell to get his featherweight career in the UFC off to a good start with a TKO win in the first or early second round.



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Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Figueiredo vs. Jackson
Luque vs. Alvarez
Diniz vs. Pinto
Ramos vs. Ofli
Almeida vs. Aswell
The Prelims