Preview: UFC 323 Prelims

Lightweights

Chris Duncan (14-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. Terrance McKinney (17-7, 7-4 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)

Duncan’s UFC career has been an impressive bit of overachievement, and the Scotsman looks to continue his success in this assignment. Duncan looked to be something of a rudimentary brawler when he hit the UFC in 2022. He got obliterated by Viacheslav Borshchev on the 2021 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series and didn’t look like a much different fighter in his contract-earning win over Charlie Campbell a year later. However, Duncan eventually showed signs of being a much more patient fighter as part of his move to American Top Team, and the results have been impressive. Duncan can still brawl a bit, but he has been able to take care of his opponents on the counter, tapping Bolaji Oki and Jordan Vucenic with a sneaky guillotine choke. An August win over Mateusz Rebecki, an under-the-radar contender for best fight of the year, served as a real coming-out party for Duncan, as the two threw hammers for three rounds of a particularly bloody war that he might not have survived a few years prior. Given his run of success, a matchup against McKinney seems like a minor step back, but it’s a fight that both men have wanted since it fell through in late 2023.

McKinney’s one of the simplest scouts in the UFC as a kill-or-be-killed fighter to a degree that has rarely seen in mixed martial arts. A championship-level talent at times as both a striker and a wrestler, McKinney generally tries to dump his gas tank as quickly and spectacularly as possible. He’s immediately dangerous and vulnerable in all aspects for a few minutes, and he’s destined to lose if things go any further than that. Even an improved Duncan isn’t the quickest athlete, so McKinney could easily overwhelm him immediately, but the Scotsman has looked sharp himself early on. Plus, McKinney is always vulnerable to a huge counter. The pick is Duncan via first-round knockout.

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